On paper, Cal (6-5) wins 90% of the statistical battles and should win this game over Stanford (2-8). However, last weekend's game aginst UA demonstrated that Cal can lose to the worst team in the Pac 10 on its home field. After all, Stanford defeated Arizona 16-6 on their home field while the Bear's secondary utterly collapsed, yielding most of the Wildcat's 52. Cal has been in an offensive funk since the halftime of the USC game (4 1/2 games ago).

On the other hand, Stanford has been marginally improving over its last four game in most statistical categories. The Cardinal began the season with only two starters returning on defense and returning junior quarterback, Chris Lewis, injured. True freshman quarterback & fellow Hart HS alum of Kyle Boller, Kyle Matter, was "thrown to the wolves" and forced to start the opener @ Boston College. Matter has experience the normal learning curve & thrown too many interceptions but the Cardinal has only fumbled away the football once in its last seven games! The defense has been "settling in" and Matter has been limiting his turnovers, recently. The Cardinal led @ halftime against UCLA & Oregon State and jumped on USC early for a two touchdown lead. Stanford has been able to stay competitive for a half but has seemed to wear down in the second half..By the fourth quarter, it's usually "el foldo" time for Stanford. In ten games, they have managed to score only 32 points (3.2 average per game) in the final stanza.

Believe me, I've heard the tales of woe from Stanford fans that their defense is slow (slower than Cal's "D"?) and that their passing game is a joke. More specifically, Stanford supposedly cannot pass the ball effectively more than 10-12 yards down the field. As every Big Game fan readily acknowledges, virtually anything can and will happen in such rival games It should be interesting...

INTANGIBLES

The pressure to win this particular Big Game really seems to be on Cal. If Stanford pulls off an upset in this game-it would really temper the criticism that has been mounting on first year headcoach, Buddy Teevens. It would also serve to put a damper on Cal's 2002 season as well. Heck, Cal was 6-4 two weeks ago with the prospect of finishing the season @ home against the two weakest teams in the Pac 10 this season. Cal fans were debating the possibility of third place. If the Bears ended the season 6-6, it would certainly deflate some balloons as well as raise some questions such as how could Cal come up short in 4 out of its final 5 home games?

Cal needs to "put to bed" the 7 year losing streak to the Cardinal and re-claim The Axe. Cal also needs this game badly to register its first winning season, 7-5, since 1993. To date, this has been the turnaround season under Jeff Tedford & Co that has put an end to such losing streaks(for example, Washington & ASU)! In their initial seasons, Tedford has definitely been superior to Teevens as a headcoach. For example, Cal has upset three top 25 teams on the road this season for the first time in Cal history. Stanford enters Memorial Stadium without a road victory (0-5). Finally, Cal possesses 24 seniors on this team (as opposed to 16 Stanfordites) including the heart of the superlative 1999 top twenty recruiting class pulled in by former coach, Tom Holmoe. These guys have suffered through three losing seasons and have never beaten Stanford. This finale @ Memorial Stadium will also be Senior Day for these players with their parents present. Needless to say, if Cal emerges from the gridiron victorious, many a fan, player & Bearant will be misty-eyed...

MATCHUPS

Stanford's Offense vs Cal's Defense

Stanford enters this contest 2-8 yet matches up well against Cal especially on offense. The offensive machine of 2001 that averaged 35.2 points per game is difficult to forget. If Stanford is to be competitive in this Big Game and possibly triumph, the offense that is ranked #9 in scoring this season (21.8 ppg) will have to have a big day. It's simiar to last week, when the worst defense, Cal, faced the worst offense, Arizona. The question was which unit was "the worst of the worst". Obviously, the results proved unsettling to Cal fans. This week the last place team in total offense, Stanford, matches up against the Pac Ten's worst in total defense, CAL. Which team will prevail this time? Stanford's offensive personnel is similar to UCLA's with the veteran offensive line, excellent skill people but a true freshman quarterback. The Bear defense held the Bruins to 12 points in Berkeley. On the otherhand, the Cardinal also reminds me of Oregon State with the big OL and power running backs along with an inexperienced sophomore QB. Cal lost that game, 24-13, as the Beavers rushed for 300+ yards. Of course, the Beavers have a superior defense than does Stanford. Many of these same Stanford players helped put up 35 & 36 points against Cal in 2001 & 2000, respectively. Veteran Chris Lewis quarterbacked the majority of last year's "struggle" and his availability will likely be a game time decision. It's a huge wildcard. If he plays-it should give the Cardinal a big emotional boost but his skills should definitely be rusty since he has NOT seen game action for several weeks. Amazingly, Stanford is dead last in passing by a country mile, averaging only 179 yards passing per contest. Their average gain per pass play is also rated #10 in the Pac 10 with a mere 5.3 yards per catch. Both quarterbacks combined have thrown 20 picks as compared to 13 TDs.

***Offensive Line vs Defensive Line***

The Cardinal rank #4 in the Pac 10 in rushing offense, averaging 137 ypg. They average 3.5 yards per carry. Cal's rushing defense has improved the last two games but still rates #7 in the conference, giving up 116 ypg. Stanford has two probable all-Pac 10 offensive linemen in right guard, Greg Schindler (6'5" 317), a fourth year starter from Live Oak HS in Morgan Hill, & right tackle, Kwame Harris (6'7" 308), the consensus top prep lineman in the nation four years ago. The left tackle, also a third year starter, is also a monster, Kirk Chambers (6'7" 307). The left guard is inexperienced Texan, Dustin Stimson, filling in for the injured senior Paul Weinacht. The center is Tom Kolich (6'6" 295) also originating from Texas. This group seems to prefer to run block rather than pass block. This talented OL yields 3.2 sacks per game.

Cal's defensive line seems better suited to pass rushing than run defense. The Bears have garnered 38 sacks (#3 in the Pac 10) with an average of 3.45 sacks (#4) per contest. One of the keys to this game will be stopping the Stanford running game, forcing the true frosh signal caller to win the Big Game on the road. If Stanford can control the ball and time of possession with their rushing attack, they could possibly seize control of the game.

Cal's sackmaster, senior Tully Banta-Cain (20 TFLs including a dozen sacks), from Fremont High in Sunnyvale will line up opposite LT, Chambers. Jamaal Cherry (3.5 sacks) will provide his relief. At weakside defensive tackle, Lorenzo Alexander (4 TFLs) will provide a challenge for LG Stimson. Josh Beckham (2 sacks) will rotate in. Daniel Nwangwu will draw the tough assignment of stopping the run vs all-Pac 10 Schindler. Tom Sverchek will alternate on the strongside for Cal. The starting strongside DE, Tom Canada (9 sacks in 8 games), will share duties with Josh Gustaveson (4.5 sacks) against bigboy, Kwame Harris. Stanford will most likely attempt to run the football behind these two stalwarts.

Advantage: EVEN

***Running Backs vs Linebackers***

There's more than one "Cal killer" in recent years but certainly fullback Casey Moore(6'2" 250) from Florida rates at the top of the list. He has had two game winning plays during his career against the Bears. He averages a scary 6.4 ypc and has 334 yards on the season playing hurt. Moore is probably most dangerous as a pass receiver with 16 catches for 2 touchdowns. This is a tough matchup for Cal every year. The tailback starter will be power back, Kerry Carter (6'2" 235), who loves to pound the ball between the tackles. His average is an "average" 3.6 ypc. The scarriest running back that ran for a 28 yard TD last season is Kenneth Tolon (6'1" 190 4.4) . Tolon rushes for 5.4 ypc this season and averaged 6.4 ypc last year! He's a slasher that has game-breaking speed. He scored on a sweep in 2001 when he cut it up off left tackle and was "gone." He's been banged up so it'll be questionable how much action that he'll see? Stanford's RBs seldom fumble (7-second fewest in the Pac 10) the football which could be a key factor since the Bears lead the nation in fumbles recovered (20)...

Cal's linebackers have markedly improved their play over the last two games since the bye week. The weakside linebacker spot has been shared between Matt Nixon (12.5 TFLs inclusive of 3.5 sacks) and Wendell Hunter (1 sack). The middle linebacker position has been manned primarily by Marcus Daniels, averaging 6 tackles per game in replacement of John Klotsche (knee injury vs Air Force). He has been relieved admirably by Brian Tremblay. The strongside backer has been filled jointly by Paul Ugenti ((1 sack) & Calvin Hosey (4.5 TFLs).

Advantage: Stanford

***Wide Receivers/Tight Ends vs Secondary***

This is another "game within a game". Both Cal and Stanford are rated last in pass defense and pass offense, respectively, in 2002. Something has to give this Saturday. Another Cal killer has been little speedster, Luke Powell (5'8"). He's been hampered by injuries all season but had his most productive game last week against Oregon State with a 45 yard scoring pass and a 32 yard punt return. He scored the game tying TD in 2000 on a simple sideline hitch pattern and beat "bracket coverage" for Stanford's opening salvo in 2001. Thos cornerbacks are gone but Cal has never had anybody that can cover him effectively. Jemeel Powell (or Donnie McCleskey) should draw the assignment. The physical mismatch will be two-sport star Teyo Johnson (6'7" 245 4.5) defended by Cal's best defensive back, Nmamdi Asomugha (6'2" 210). Asomugha has generally been a Cal star in Big Games, intercepting two passes last year. The third WR is Ryan Wells who should be defended by James Bethea. What's amazing is that all three talented wideouts are averaging between 10.1-11.5 yards per catch, materially lower than last year. For example, Powell averaged nearly 20 yards (actually19.6) per grab in 2001. The starting tightend, Brett Pierce, went down for the season early but his replacement, Alex Smith, might be an improvement as a receiver. He's a deep threat and has 26 receptions for an average of 13 ypc & 2 TDs. Pierce is the superior run blocker, however. Smith will be covered short by the Cal LB corps and deep by safeties Watts & McCleskey. Under the new Cal defensive scheme, the linebackers no longer have the responsibility to defend the tightend forty yards downfield. Remember the two long pass plays to Cardinal tightends last year?

Advantage: Stanford

Cal's Offense vs Stanford's Defense

On paper-this looks like a lucrative match-up for the Golden Bears. Cal is #1 in the Pac 10 in scoring offense (36.1 ppg) versus Stanford's #10 position in scoring defense (34.7 ppg). I also think that Jeff Tedford may have a "little something" saved from his play book for this game. Trick plays have been conspiculously absent since the USC game. It would be a perfect time to employ a couple against the inexperience, sophomore-laden Stanford defense. Stanford broke Oregon's home winning streak and cost the Ducks a berth in the national championship game in 2001.

Cal ranks #8 in total offense (351 ypg) & Stanford rates #8 in total defense (383 ypg) so, again, someone will have to step forward and establish dominance. Stanford also yields the highest average gain per play in the conference: 5.6 yards! Cal's Kyle Boller is in his fourth season at the helm and should prove effective against Stanford's young secondary (4 of top 5 defensive backs are freshmen or sophomores) if he has time to throw the football. Only free safety Colin Branch played against Cal in 2001 & intercepted an errant Boller pass.

***Offensive Line vs Defensive Line***

Cal's offensive line has served as a barometer of the team throughout the season. IMO, this group had their weakest performance of the season last Saturday against Arizona. The Wildcats were last in rushing "D" and last in sacks yet Cal could not run the ball consistenly while allowing Boller to be harassed all day & sacked 4 times. Boller never looked comfortable.

The Bear's need to run for 120 yards to provide the respect necessary from the Stanford front seven. Otherwise, they can zone blitz, etc. This young defense is #9 in rushing defense, coughing up 124 yards of real estate weekly. Stanford also allows the second highest average per carry: 3.5 yards. Cal is ranked #7 in rushing offense in the Pac 10, averaging 98 ypg. Joe Igber has been solid all season and has gained 904 yards on an average of 4.2 ypc. If Ziggy Iggy can get a push from his offensive linemen and fullback, he could become the first Cal 1000 yard rusher in over a decade! Igber was injured last season but had a big day in Berkeley in 2000, scoring two touchdowns.

Cal's offensive identity is as a Jeff Tedford passing team and the Bears stand #6 in passing offense in the land of the "pass happy" Pac 10, producing an average of 253 ypg opposite Stanford's #7 ranked pass defense (259 ypg). Only one team gives up more yardage per completion than Stanford's 7.8 average-it's Cal @ 7.9 ypc. Kyle Boller should have time to do his "thing" against the rookie trio of frosh-soph corners of Stanford. Cal's pass protection dropped from second to third last week but still frugally gives up approximately 2 sacks per outing (23 sacks over 11 games) . Stanford is tied for the bottom (with Arizona) in the league pass rushing stats, registering a paltry 2.1 sacks per game. Will the real Cal offensive line please stand up?

Cal's weakside tackle Mark Wilson will face former prep DreamTeamer, Amon Gordon (6 TFLs including 3 sacks). Senior Scott Tercero, Cal's best OL as well as a four year starter @ guard, will draw Stanford's top defensive lineman and another former high school DreamTeam selection, Matt Leonard (6 TFLs inclusive of 2 sacks). Cal center, Ryan Jones, will pick up blitzing linebackers and help out wherever needed. Cal's strongside guard, Jon Giesel, will matchup vs run stopper, Trey Freeman, & future star frosh, B Oshinowo (5 TFLs including 2 sacks). Strongside tackle Chris Murphy will line up opposite Canadian Louis Hobson (5.5 TFLs incl 1 sack). True freshman DreamTeamer, Julian Jenkins (1.5 sacks), recently began starting here and showed flashes of brillance but unfortunately suffered a broken arm, ending his season...

Advantage: CAL

***Running Backs vs Linebackers***

Joe Igber is a four year starter who should have some success against the young Cardinal linebacker corps. The #3 tackler on the team is MLB, Jake Covault (6'3" 230), averaging 5 stops per contest. His shoulders are banged up so expect to see a lot of Brian Gaffney. The strongside backer is the #4 tackler, David Bergeron (6'4" 245), who has racked up 6.5 TFLs inclusive of 1.5 sacks. The weakside spot should be manned by the #1 prep LB in the nation, Michael Craven(1 interception). He's been ailing so another gem frosh prospect, Jon Alston(2 sacks), will start in his stead. The Cardinal linebackers zone blitz more often than Cal with their defensive ends dropping off into pass coverage.

Advantage: CAL

***Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends vs Secondary***

Coach Tedford needs to open up the offense this week because if Cal can gain the advantage early, the young Stanford squad will be in trouble. The Cardinal moved senior Colin Branch to free safety from strong safety in the Big Game last season. Soph O. Atogwe has played well as the strong safety. Both safeties have 6.5 tackles per game to lead the defense. Atogwe has three interceptions and 4 passes defensed. Branch has two picks. The major questionmarks concern the play of its inexperienced group of cornerbacks. Stanford has done what Cal needs to do by recruiting track speed and placing it @ the corners. Sophs Stanley Wilson & Leigh Torrance are members of the Cardinal 4 x 100 sprint relay team and start @ right and left cornerbacks, respectively. The star of the future may be true freshman, TJ Rushing, who returned an interception 63 yards last week vs Oregon State. All three cornerbacks have 2 picks apiece. The weakness of the secondary has been Leigh Torrance consistently getting beat deep and the inability of the strong safety to cover the tightend.

Cal needs to attack Leigh Torrance deep on multiple occasions irregardless of the wide receiver. LaShaun Ward would be preferable but Geoff McArthur and Jonathan Makonnen have "bursts" that can beat him deep. Boller should continue his chemistry with tightend, Tom Swoboda, until Stanford shows that they can defend it. Flea flickers might work against this young secondary so they should be attempted, perhaps, one in each half. Wide receiver reverses to Strang or Ward should be tried because the Stanford defense lacks team speed. Screens and shuffle passes to Igber should work as well. Igber or Manderino should run some circle patterns over the middle and some wheel routes up the sideline against these rookie linebackers. Multiple formations could also confuse this group especially the three receivers split to one-side.

Advantage: CAL

BOTTOMLINE:

This season has demonstrated that a specific formula of key factors - if capitalized upon - can translate into victory. Cal is not great in total offense (yardage) and ranks last in total defense but the team's record is still 6-5. If the Bears win the majority of the six facets of the game itemized below (based upon 2002 season statistics), they should emerge victorious in the 105th version of the Big Game.

#1 - *Cal needs to start fast and win the first half!* The Bears have outscored their opposition in the first half this season by greater than 100 points and have won the initial 30 minutes in 9 out of 11 games. The two games that the Bears trailed at intermission (Oregon State & Arizona), they ultimately lost. Stanford has scored its most points in the first quarter (69) but has given up a horrendous total(103) right out-of-the-gate. The Cardinal have played better early in three of the last four games, however. Stanford has lost every quarter on a seasonal basis but plays the closest to their opposition in the second & third quarters. As previously referenced, the Cardinal seems to physically wear down & fold its tent in the fourth quarter, scoring only 32 points over ten games.

#2 - *Cal must win the Turnover battle!* The Bears rank #2 in the nation in turnover margin at a positive + 16. They have taken away the football from their opponents a remarkable 33 times in eleven games but have only given the pigskin away on 17 occasions. On the surface this should be easily doable because Stanford is ranked #9 in the Pac 10 in turnover margin with a minus -3 on the season. However, Cal leads the nation in fumble recoveries (20) and Stanford rarely fumbles (7). Here's a key stat: Stanford has only fumbled once (1) during their last seven games. The Stanford quarterbacks, however, have thrown 20 interceptions(vs 13 TDs), 7 more picks than any other Pac 10 team. In comparison, Cal has been efficient throwing 29 TDs and only 9 interceptions. To win the turnover game this week, the Bears will most likely have to "pirate some passes". On the season, Cal has won the turnover margin in 7 of its 11 games, winning 6 of those. The only loss despite winning in (net) turnovers was to the Pac Ten's only undefeated team, Washington State, 48-38. Cal tied two opponents in turnovers (USC & Air Force) and lost to two opponents in turnovers (Oregon State & Arizona), LOSING ALL FOUR OF THOSE GAMES...In translation, the Bears MUST win the turnover margin to triumph on the scoreboard.

#3 - *Cal must continue its uncanny red zone scoring proficiency.* Tedford's offense is ranked #2 behind Oregon with a batting average of 91%. The Bears have scored inside their opponent's 20 yard line on 38 out of 42 opportunities. Stanford is ranked dead last in red zone defense yielding points to their opposition on 92% of their chances...Only Oregon State effectively shut Cal down inside the twenty this season and, of course, the Beavers won, 24-13. If Cal converted their normal percentage of touchdowns and field goals in that game, the Bears would have scored 24 points, too. This stat looks to be critical in this game.

#4 - *Cal must stop the run (defined as less than 175 yards per game)!* Three opponents rushed for 175 yards or greater(USC, Oregon State & Air Force) against the Bears and ALL won. Stanford is a powerful running team and could dominate the line of scrimmage against Cal. If Bear "D" cannot stop the run, the Cardinal will dominate "time of possession" and play keep-away from Cal's offense. This is Stanford's best opportunity to win this game.

#5 - *Cal must win the quarterback sack stat.* There's almost a perfect correlation to victory when Cal wins the battle of the trenches as it affects the passing game. Cal is #3 in pass protection (2.1 sacks allowed per contest) and #4 in sacks (averaging 3.45 sacks). The only blemish on this record was the Arizona game where Cal won the sack battle 5 to 4 in nominal terms. However, on a relative basis to their season average, Cal stunk and Arizona overachieved. Arizona only averaged 1.8 sacks per game entering the game and racked up 4! Cal typically yielded less than 2 sacks each game prior to Arizona but gave up greater than twice their statistical norm. Bingo.

#6 - *Cal must win the Special Team's third of the game.* Cal is #1 in kickoff returns (thanks to LaShaun Ward!) vs Stanford @ #8. Cal is #5 in punt returns vs Stanford's #8. Cal is #1 in kickoff coverage, yielding only 17.2 yards per return. Stanford sits in last(#10), giving up 25.1 per effort. Cal is #2 in field goal accuracy (78%) versus Stanford's #9 spot (60%). The Bears have actually doubled the number of FGs on the Cardinal, 18-9.

The only areas of concern relate to the punt game. Stanford's punt coverage unit allows 9.5 ypr vs Cal's 11.1 ypr. Stanford is #7 (to Cal's #10) in the conference in net punting, averaging 4 more yards per punt than Cal. Lastly, Luke Powell has been injured this season but led the Pac 10 in 2001 in punt returns, averaging 16 yards per return. He returned one 32 yards for his season best last Saturday against the Beavers. Finally, Cal has suffered 4 punt blocks while blocking 3 enemy punts. Stanford has blocked none but has had zero punts blocked. In the Big Game, blocked punts happen with regularity. Stanford blocked two for touchdowns in Berkeley in 2000. I predict that each team will block at least one punt!

PREDICTION: California 44, Stanford 31.