Plus/minus: WBB vs. George Washington

Although Cal's 55-53 loss to George Washington on Monday left them short of their goal of going to the NCAA Regionals, they still have a lot to look forward to. To build upon this landmark season, they'll have a few well-established hurdles to overcome. However, only think about those after you take a couple of steps back, breathe deeply and repeat to yourself, "27" as in this year's win total.

Such is the nature of college basketball that only one team gets to finish their season with a smile. Of the 64 teams in the NCAA tournament, 63 will end their seasons with losses. While some of them have an air of inevitability around them, such as when a hapless team has to face the likes of a North Carolina, Tennessee, or a Stanford in the first round, the ones that sting the most are the losses that get away late.  When everything that a team's worked for all year is showing signs of paying off and taking that next big step is just a few minutes away, letting those games slip away will stay with a team for a long, long time. And while the bracket will show George Washington advancing to the Greensboro regional after defeating the Bears 55-53, Cal goes into the offseason knowing that this was a game they should have won. 

With a thin California team made even thinner with the injury to center Rama N'Diaye, the Bears still appeared to match up well with George Washington. The Colonials were quicker in the backcourt, but they didn't have the one scoring guard who could take Cal apart. In the frontcourt, the Bears, with Devanei Hampton and Ashley Walker figured to provide the Bears with an edge.

While the Bears led for almost the entire game, the question was how they would hold up during the final few minutes.  Reduced to being a six-player team, Cal was used to having its players log heavy minutes throughout the season.  But as tenacious as the Oregons, UCLAs, and Arizona States were, George Washington represented a steeper challenge. In the end, it was the Colonials that were just a step faster downcourt, a bit stronger on the boards, and composed enough to make every play they needed to during the final minute.

Against good teams, the difference between good and good enough can be ever so thin. If one more shot falls during the Stanford game at Haas Pavilion, the Bears end up winning the Pac-10 title.  If a shot or two doesn't rim out against George Washington, or the Bears have one more successful blockout, Cal gets to play at least one more game.

But as head coach Joanne Boyle said after the game, "one loss does not define our season."  For the Bears, the 2007-2008 marked a big step up for the program. The team was ranked in the top 10 for much of the season, set a school record with 27 wins, either led or shared the conference lead until the final game of the season, defeated 18th-ranked Vanderbilt at home 67-59, narrowly lost at 3rd-ranked Rutgers 56-51, and lost 60-58 to Stanford in front of an astonishing Pac-10 record of 10,525 at Haas Pavilion.   As the team continued to pile up wins, its attendance numbers continued to increase. Their average atendance of 2,363 smashed the old record of 1,656 set in 2005-2006 and 2006-2007.

Devanei Hampton was named All Pac-10 for the third consecutive year, while Ashley Walker was named for second straight year in addition to being named a second-team All-America by Sports Illustrated, and both players along with all five others in the seven-player rotation are all coming back next year along with incoming recruits Casey Morris and Shawna Lei-Kuehu.  With Stanford losing Candace Wiggins to graduation, the Bears are in terrific position to make another run at the Pac-10 title in 2008-2009.

Depending on how N'Diaye's rehab goes, the Bears could be thin in the frontcourt at the beginning of the next season. While freshman Kelsey Adrian could conceivably be rotated in and out for a few minutes at a time, she's shown enough of an outside shooting touch that the Bears might be better served trying to get her to develop into the reliable outside shooter that they desperately need.

While Hampton and Walker will continue to be strong offensive and defensive weapons, they should have their way against most opponents next season. But teams will be even more aggressive in double-teaming Hampton and pushing her farther away from the basket. In Cal's losses to Stanford, Washington, and George Washington, Hampton's options were either to quickly pass out of the double-team or try to force a shot.  Whether it's having them add a dimension to their respective games or coming up with new ways to outfox opposing defenses; these are the hurdles that are awaiting the Bears next March in both the Pac-10 tourney and the NCAAs.

Natasha Vital and Alexis Gray-Lawson averaged 35 and 34 minutes a game this past season by necessity and would be greatly helped if one of the incoming freshman was able to make a push for playing time so that neither guard has to play the entire second half.   Both guards were noticeably less sharp towards the end of the George Washington game, yet the Bears weren't in a position where they could afford to rest either of them for an extended period.

Additional depth will also allow the Bears to change up their defenses more.  Two years ago, when Jene Morris was on the team, the Bears would occasionally unleash a press with devastating affect.  To do that with any degree of regularity, Cal minimally needs more players so they don't wear out their regulars and faster players who can get across the court to double, help, and get back on defense.

One area where the Bears will look to improve is its outside shooting.  With opposing teams cheating in on Hampton and Walker, they'll concede open shots, as George Washington did on Monday.  Although the Bears have three shooters who shot at least 35% from three-point range, an ability to consistently  hit mid-range jump shots will help open games up for Cal and give them more situations where they'd feel comfortable going to their bench.

While it's tempting to dwell on how Cal can get better next year, it would be mistaken to use that to detract from the progress the team has made during the past few years.   The team's success brought it a newer, larger audience, but much of the newer audience's exposure to Cal basketball came during the two Stanford losses and the George Washington game.  When looking through the same jaundiced prism that was used during the men's basketball season, the easiest thing would to look at the women's team strictly in terms of its shortcomings and what it can't do, and that somehow the disappointment of losing a second round NCAA game can be lumped in with the bitterness of losing home conference games to a bunch of mid-pack teams.

Seasons that fell below expectations in football and men's basketball and the dragging out of SAHPC court case have created an anhedonia among many Cal fans where any success is interpreted merely in terms of how long its delaying disaster, and to allow any opinion of the women's basketball team to be sucked into that polyglot would be unfair.

Towards the end of the season, Cal's women's basketball team may have had its legs grow weary and it may have run out of bodies, but it never stopped playing with heart.   It's been said that a loss reveals more about a team's character than a win.   And after losing a game due to a controversial call, it would have been understandable it the coaches and players, in their postgame comments, might have lashed out or said some things in anger.  But that didn't happen.

Boyle, in the postgame press conference, answered questions about the travelling call in Vital, but didn't dwell on it, but whatever she said about the call were dwarfed by the tribute that she paid to her team toward the end of her comments.

Ashley Walker, who narrowly missed blocking the game-winning shot, and lay on the court after the game ended was upset, but she was upset because the team didn't have a chance to advance and keep playing together.

Devanei Hampton was so wrought with emotion that as she was talking, you could tell her mind was elsewhere.  And as much as the gathered reporters were trying to poke and prod and get a read on the team's emotions, Alexis Gray-Lawson wouldn't allow herself to get pulled into doing any sort of second guessing.  Fans may think they hate losing, but compared to what a student-athlete goes through after a game like this, it's not even close.

For anybody who follows sports, it's not always easy to find a team that to really like.  Besides winning, a team has to play with passion, it has to play with intelligence, it has to treat the sport with respect, and in the case of college sports, the team has to play by the rules and represent the school well.

And if that's what you want out of sports, then this is your team.

Player	Min	+Pts	-Pts	Pts	Reb	Ast	Diff
Ashley Walker	36	50	46	19	9	4	+4
Kelsey Adrian	19	27	24	6	2	0	+3
Krista Foster	2	3	0	0	1	0	+3
Natasha Vital	40	53	55	7	5	3	-2
Devanei Hampton	33	46	51	4	9	1	-5
Lauren Greif	33	38	44	3	7	0	-6
Alexis Gray-Lawson	37	48	55	14	9	1	-7

First vs. Second Half (minimum 2 minutes)

First Half Top - Ashley Walker - 28-18, +10
Second Half Top - Kelsey Adrian - 19-17, +2

First Half Bottom - Kelsey Adrian - 8-7, +1
Second Half Bottom - Lauren Greif - 7-21, -14

Starting Lineup

During the season, the Bears' best lineup has been their starting lineup, but as well as they played in the first half, they struggled in the second.  In the first half, the starting lineup scored 23 points in nearly 13 minutes of play. But in the second half, they scored just 3 points in 7:20, with the points coming on a free throw and a jumper by Walker.  In other words, the Bears didn't get any meaningful contribution from any of the other four starters. 

With 10:06 left and Cal leading by two, 38-36, head coach Joanne Boyle replaced Lauren Greif with Kelsey Adrian.  This was the first time all game that the Bears had gone with a Vital/Gray-Lawson/Adrian/Hampton and Walker lineup.  During the last few games of the season, Adrian was getting increasing amounts of playing time when replacing Greif.  But with N'Diaye's injury, Adrian was helping give Hampton and Walker spot relief on Monday and also filled in for Gray-Lawson for a couple of minutes in the first half.

That lineup was successful and remained intact for 6:46 which even for a team that heavily relies on its starters is a long time for a team to go without substituting.  By the time Greif came back in for Adrian with 3:19 left, the Bears were up six, 53-47.  Cal never scored again as George Washington scored the game's final eight points, with four of them coming in the final 13 seconds.

Was fatigue a factor?  Vital and Gray-Lawson played the entire second half, Hampton played the last 14:48 and Walker played the final 12:38.  Even though the team was relatively well-rested coming off of the San Diego game, the heavy minutes the Bears played, along with the frenetic George Washington defense, took its toll. 

Vital, Greif, Gray-Lawson, Hampton and Walker in 20:09 - 26-31, -5
(1H) Vital, Greif, Gray-Lawson, Hampton and Walker in 12:49 - 23-16, +7
(2H) Vital, Greif, Gray-Lawson, Hampton and Walker in 7:20 - 3-15, -12
All other lineups in 19:51 - 27-24, +3

Difference Makers

With Ashley Walker in 36 minutes - 50-46, +4
Without Walker in 4 minutes - 3-9, -6

With Kelsey Adrian in 19 minutes - 27-24, +3
Without Adrian in 21 minutes - 26-31, -5

Big Lineups

Most people understood that Rama N'Diaye's knee injury was going to make Bears attempt at reaching the Sweet Sixteen considerably more difficult.  Although N'Diaye hadn't had a big scoring game in some time, and she seemed to be more of a defensive stopper earlier in the season than recently, her size and long arms would have been useful against the Colonials' bigger players.  Her defensive timing is such, that even when players catch the ball against her and think they've made a move to get past her, as the shot's about to go up, one of N'Diaye's arms would shoot out and she'd knock the ball away.

One ancillary effect of her absence is that it forced Adrian to play more as a frontcourt reserve. While Adrian's minutes were about the same, it meant that less minutes were available to her spell Vital, Greif, and Gray-Lawson. 

In the first half, the Bears were a +9 (25-16) during the 14:22 that Hampton and Walker were oncourt together.  However, in the second half, Cal was a -8 (18-26), during the 14:04 that Hampton/Walker lineups were on court.

Big player lineups	Time in game	Point differential
Walker and Hampton	28:28	43-42, +1
Walker only	7:01	7-4, +3
Hampton only	4:31	3-9, -6
TOTAL	40:00	53-55, -2

Contribution Evaluation

Player	Minutes	Expected	Actual	Difference
Walker	36	-1.80	+4	+5.80
Adrian	19	-0.95	+3	+3.95
Foster	2	-0.10	+3	+3.10
Vital	40	-2.00	-2	0
Hampton	33	-1.65	-5	-3.35
Greif	33	-1.65	-6	-4.35
Gray-Lawson	37	-1.85	-7	-5.15

NCAA Tourney Combined

During Cal's two NCAA games, Walker was clearly the Bears outstanding player, leading the team in points, rebounds, and was just one assist away from tying Vital's team high 11 assists.

Walker was a +30 (113-83) during the 62 minutes that she played.  In the 18 minutes that she didn't play, the Bears were -15 (32-17), meaning a net difference of 45 points. No other player had a remotely similar effect.  Vital had the second-best plus/minus score with a [phone]) in her 74 minutes; but during the other six minutes, the Bears played the opposition even (7-7).

Player	Min	+Pts	-Pts	Pts	Reb	Ast	Diff
Ashley Walker	62	113	83	40	21	10	+30
Natasha Vital	74	123	108	14	7	11	+15
Lauren Greif	55	84	73	8	7	1	+11
Alexis Gray-Lawson	70	113	104	19	13	1	+9
Devanei Hampton	58	100	91	26	13	3	+9
Kelsey Adrian	43	63	58	10	9	0	+5
Rachelle Federico	2	6	3	0	0	0	+3
Rama N'Diaye	14	17	17	4	2	1	0
Shantrell Sneed	11	16	20	2	4	0	-4
Krista Foster	11	14	18	4	2	1	-4

(This is the last plus/minus of the women's college basketball season.  Thanks for all your kind words and input during the course of the year.  I didn't get the chance to meet as many as you as I would have liked, but fall practice is just seven months away and before we know it the 2008-2009 season will be upon us. - Ted)

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