Plus/minus: MBB vs. Stanford

For those wondering why Sunday's Cal's 79-69 loss to Stanford had a familiar feel, it's because the Bears digging themselves out of a first half deficit to make the game close at halftime, only to fall back into another big deficit to start the second half and then making it close again happened in Cal's 82-77 loss to Stanford last month.

Stanford 79, California 69

Player	Min	+Pts	-Pts	Pts	Reb	Ast	Diff
Harper Kamp	17	37	28	7	4	1	+9
Nikola Knezevic	14	30	25	3	1	3	+5
Jamal Boykin	23	43	39	7	4	1	+4
David Liss	1	3	2	0	1	0	+1
Nican Robinson	0+	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Wilkes	8	15	17	6	1	0	-2
Patrick Christopher	40	69	77	15	4	0	-8
DeVon Hardin	23	37	46	5	5	0	-9
Eric Vierneisel	12	15	29	2	1	0	-14
Ryan Anderson	34	55	72	15	11	0	-17
Jerome Randle	28	41	60	9	1	7	-19

After spending chunks of each half digging itself out of holes, the question is whether the Bears could have done anything to prevent themselves from getting into such big holes in the first place.  The answer, is a decided yes.

Using a starting lineup of Randle, Christopher, Vierneisel, Anderson, and Hardin, the Bears quickly fell behind 13-7, and eventually trailed 23-9.  They managed to narrow the deficit to four (33-29) at halftime because of a few factors: a) Nikola Knezevic managed to steady the team offensively, b) the front court grouping of Boykin, Hardin, and Kamp was effective (+9 in 3:13), and c) they went the rest of the half with three big people out of Hardin, Boykin, Anderson, Kamp, and Wilkes.

So what happens in the second half? The Bears open with the exact same starting lineup and gradually go from being down four to being down nine, before Knezevic is brought in to supply some poise to the offense.  The frontcourt grouping of Boykin, Hardin, and Kamp never took the court together in the second half, although the Bears didn't go back to just having two bigs until they were down 10 with less than two minutes left.

The most aggravating part is that this exact same scenario took place against Oregon a couple of weeks ago.  The starting lineup fell behind 8-0 and eventually 11-4 before a substitution was made.  The Bears scraped their way back to a two-point deficit (34-32) at halftime.  The same starting lineup goes back out and went from being down two to being down 10 before a substitution was made.

First vs. Second Half (minimum 2 minutes)

First Half Top - Nikola Knezevic - 16-8, +8
Second Half Top - Harper Kamp - 21-15, +6

First Half Bottom - Ryan Anderson - 20-33, -13
Second Half Bottom - DeVon Hardin - 15-26, -11

Difference Makers

With Harper Kamp in 17 minutes - 37-28, +9
Without Kamp in 23 minutes - 32-51, -19

With Nikola Knezevic in 14 minutes - 30-25, +5
Without Knezevic in 26 minutes - 39-54, -15

With Jamal Boykin in 23 minutes - 43-39, +4
Without Boykin in 17 minutes - 26-40, -14

With Eric Vierneisel in 12 minutes - 15-29, -14
Without Vierneisel in 28 minutes - 54-50, +4

With Ryan Anderson in 34 minutes - 55-72, -17
Without Anderson in 6 minutes - 14-7, +7

With Jerome Randle in 28 minutes - 41-60, -19
Without Randle in 12 minutes - 28-19, +9

Lineups

Take away the play of the starting lineup and the Bears played Stanford even.

Starting lineup
Randle, Christopher, Vierneisel, Anderson, Hardin in 11:07 - 15-26, -11
All other lineups in 28:53 - 54-53, +1

Point guard combinations

Randle only	26:36	39-54, -15
Knezevic only	10:46	25-17, +8
Randle and Knezevic	1:35	2-6, -4
Knezevic and Liss	0:45	3-2, +1
Robinson, Knezevic, and Liss	0:18	0-0, 0
	40:00	69-79, -10

Big player combinations

Boykin, Anderson, and Kamp	11:33	25-21, +4
Anderson and Hardin	11:07	15-26, -11
Wilkes, Anderson, and Hardin	4:09	8-7, +1
Boykin, Hardin, and Kamp	3:13	9-0, +9
Boykin, Anderson, and Hardin	2:52	0-6, -6
Boykin, Wilkes, and Hardin	2:25	5-7, -2
Anderson and Kamp	1:53	3-7, -4
Boykin, Wilkes, and Anderson	1:17	2-3, -1
Wilkes, Anderson, and Kamp	0:37	0-0, 0
Boykin and Anderson	0:36	2-2, 0
Boykin only	0:18	0-0, 0
	40:00	69-79, -10

Big player combinations summary

Three bigs	26:06	49-44, +5
Two bigs	13:36	20-35, -15
One big	0:18	0-0, 0
	40:00	69-79, -10

Contribution Evaluation

Player	Minutes	Expected	Actual	Difference
Kamp	17	-4.25	+9	+13.25
Boykin	23	-5.75	+4	+9.75
Knezevic	14	-3.50	+5	+8.50
Christopher	40	-10.00	-8	+2.00
Liss	1	-0.25	+1	+1.25
Robinson	0+	--	--	--
Wilkes	8	-2.00	-2	0
Hardin	23	-5.75	-9	-3.25
Anderson	34	-8.50	-17	-8.50
Vierneisel	12	-3.00	-14	-11.00
Randle	28	-7.00	-19	-12.00

Description: This stat measures the significance of a player's contribution to the team's effort. If a team wins by 10 points, and a player plays in half of the team's minutes, his expected contribution would be a +5. For example, when Cal defeated Grambling by 19 points. Brian Wethers played 28 minutes or 70% of the game. If we multiply 70% x +19, Wethers' expected contribution would be a +13.30. But for the game he was a +26, so his net for the game for a +12.70. In a perfect team situation, if everyone contributed equally, the difference column would consist of a row of zeros.

Stanford combined

Player	Min	+Pts	-Pts	Pts	Reb	Ast	Diff
Harper Kamp	28	61	43	9	4	1	+18
David Liss	1	3	2	0	1	0	+1
Nikola Knezevic	20	38	38	3	1	3	0
Nican Robinson	0+	0	1	0	0	0	-1
Jamal Boykin	46	84	86	21	12	2	-2
Jordan Wilkes	10	15	22	6	1	0	-7
DeVon Hardin	42	70	79	22	9	0	-9
Patrick Christopher	74	139	154	31	12	3	-15
Eric Vierneisel	45	80	100	7	4	1	-20
Ryan Anderson	72	132	152	26	19	3	-20
Jerome Randle	62	108	128	21	8	14	-20
				146

Two numbers standout here: how much better the Bears do when Harper Kamp is in the game, and how much worse they do when Eric Vierneisel's playing.

During the 28 minutes that Kamp played, the Bears outscored Stanford 61-43, for a +18.  During the 52 minutes that he was on the bench, the Bears were outscored 118-85 (-33), for an overall difference of 51 points.  Kamp topped the plus/minus against Stanford in both games, with a +9 each time.

Although three Bears had a combined -20, Vierneisel stands out because his total was achieved in just 45 minutes.  During that time, the Bears were outscored 100-80.  During the 35 minutes that he rested, Cal outscored Stanford 66-61, or was a +5, for an overall difference of  25 points.

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