Plus/minus: WBB Cal vs. Stanford

Throughout most of the postgame autograph session following Cal's 60-58 loss, point guard Alexis Gray-Lawson sat patiently at a table alongside Shantrell Sneed and Krista Foster as kids stood in line waiting to have their posters, pictures, and cards signed. Then at some point the emotion from the game overtook her, as she covered her face with the hood of her sweatshirt before receiving a hug.

In a remarkable game where for one afternoon Haas Pavilion recalled the noise and energy of the old Harmon Gym, where two teams ranked in top 10 nationally played before an astounding crowd of 10,525, it was Gray-Lawson's errant jump shot at the top of the key that kept the game from going into overtime.  Afterwards, Gray-Lawson bent over, covering her head in her hands as an extultant Cardinal team celebrated.

The Bears rallied from a seven-point deficit midway through the second half to take a short lead 56-53 with 4:07 left. A three-point play from Jayne Appel tied the game, and then Candice Wiggins, whose been a burr in Cal's saddle the past four years, showed why she can stake her rightful claim to being one of the greatest players in Pac-10 history, by making a blindside steal and driving the length of the court for a lay-up, and then hitting a short jump shot for the scores that eventually gave Stanford the win.

The stakes for this game were enormous.  A win would have virtually locked up an undisputed Pac-10 Championship for the Bears, evened the season series with Stanford which was important for the Cal's chances of playing it's early-round games at Maples Pavilion, and established the Bears bona fides as a top 10 team.  Although the Bears have an impressive 23-4 (think about that, 23 and 4) win with all of their losses coming to national powerhouses (Baylor, Rutgers and Stanford), they're still awaiting the one big victory that would send a resounding "We Belong" message to rest of the college basketball.

Yet in some respects this game mirrors the football team's 23-17 loss to USC in 2004.   In that game, the team accounted itself so well in defeat that in the eyes of the nation, its stature increased.  On Saturday, the Bears erased all vestiges of last month's 72-52 loss at Stanford, with an outstanding defense that kept Wiggins from being a factor for much of the game, and keeping Appel and Pedersen from springing the Cardinal on game-changing runs. After Stanford took leads of six in the first half and seven in the second half, instead of panicking and making unwise decisions with the ball, the Bears hung in there and showed poise and mental toughness in coming back each time.   Whether it was Lauren Greif chasing down a loose bowl, Devanei Hampton and Ashley Walker tightly gripping each rebounds as Stanford players from every direction tried to knock them loose, or Alexis Gray-Lawson or Natasha Vital exploting gaps in the Cardinal defense, this Cal team responded positively to whatever challenge Stanford could muster.

After being held to a combined 13 points in Palo Alto, Hampton and Walker combined for 36 points, using their speed to cause Stanford's defense problems and adeptly passing out of double- and triple-teams.  Where the Bears were hurt were through their outside shooting.  Stanford's defense was so concerned with defensing Hampton and Walker, they were willing to concede open shots to Vital, Greif, and Adrian.  With Adrian being a reluctant shooter (two shots in 28 minutes) and Vital having an unchararacteristically cold game (3-of-18 in 32 minutes), the Bears were unable to burn Stanford for their defensive choices.

Yet what the game was took a backseat to what the game represented.  While Cal-Stanford games have always drawn well, up until this year, drawn well meant 3,000 people.  Even though reports of 5,000 seats being sold for this game were mentioned earlier this week, the attendance of 10,525 is going to raise eyebrows. As opposed to most home games where you could get a seat somewhere around midcourt a few minutes before game time, on Saturday, almost all of the seatbacks in the general admission section were occupied 40 minutes before game time.

It also meant that most of the seatbacks were occupied by fans that wanted to be there, people that wanted to see this game so badly that they waited in line 90 minutes before the game so they could get a good seat and save others for their friends.  The result was an energy that's been missing from Haas Pavilion the past few years and an audience that was loud all the way around and without prompting would cheer louder when a big defensive possession was at stake.  It was a crowd that didn't need the student section to yell "Stand Up!" late in the game, and even when Gray-Lawson's shot missed, the crowd remained standing and applauded both teams off the court

Although the Bears have made great strides in each of head coach Joanne Boyle's three years, one of the biggest recruiting challenges for the Bears has been going up against other programs that offer more robust atmospheres.  While some teams play in front of crowds that regularly number in the thousands, the Bears have until recently struggled to grow their fan base beyond its die-hard core of about 1,500.  Yet on Saturday, the Bears played in front of thousands of people who've never been to a women's basketball game, and they saw two of the nation's better teams play their hearts out in a game which was tied seven times.  And even a percentage of those people had a good enough time that they might consider coming back, the Bears would be well on their way to establishing the big-time atmosphere that would match the team on the floor.

Attendance numbers have increased in the past weeks, due partly to the increased success of the team, and due to outreach promoting games as family-friendly.  Even after Saturday's tough loss, autograph tables were set up all around the Haas Pavilion floor.  As fans, coaches, fans, and families milled about the court, hundreds of kids stood in four different lines, waiting to get autographs.  And while one wouldn't fault the players for wanting to beg out of autograph duty so they could get their heads together, they showed up, some sooner, some later after doing press duty.

And while losses are never easy and while there's still a lot of basketball season left, as each player and coach each returned to the floor, one hoped from head coach Boyle to new assistants Charmin Smith and Kevin Morrison, from senior Krista Foster to freshmen Kelsey Adrian and Rachelle Federico and especially Alexis Gray-Lawson, that as they looked out at the floor and looked up at the emptying seats that had been buzzing for the past two hours, that while they might not yet have built the program they want, they can take great pride in their roles in building the program into where it is now.

Player	Min	+Pts	-Pts	Pts	Reb	Ast	Diff
Alexis Gray-Lawson	32	45	41	7	4	2	+4
Rama N'Diaye	2	3	0	0	0	0	+3
Kelsey Adrian	28	41	40	0	6	0	+1
Ashley Walker	40	58	60	17	14	3	-2
Devanei Hampton	38	55	60	19	10	3	-5
Natasha Vital	32	46	51	10	4	3	-5
Lauren Greif	28	42	48	5	8	1	-6

There's not a lot to be learned from the plus/minus since the Bears basically went with six players, with Adrian rotating in with Greif, Vital, and Gray-Lawson. N'Diaye was limited to two minutes, due partly to Hampton and Walker staying out of foul trouble and both playing well offensively.  The plus/minus numbers are unkind to Greif, who saved the Bears on multiple possessions, whether it was running through the key to chase down rebounds, hitting a shot while falling down, or diving to knock a ball to a teammate.

When Alexis Gray-Lawson picked up her second foul with 8:06 left in the first half, the Bears held on to a 19-13 lead.  It was unlikely that she'd return in the first half unless the game was on the threshold of being a disaster, Cal had to be somewhat encouraged that they went into the halftime tied. 

First vs. Second Half (minimum 2 minutes)

First Half Top - Alexis Gray-Lawson - 19-13, +6
Second Half Top - Lauren Greif - 21-16, +5

First Half Bottom - Lauren Greif - 21-32, -11
Second Half Bottom - Natasha Vital - 14-19, -5

Starting Lineup

Vital, Greif, Gray-Lawson, Hampton, Walker in 12:12 - 17-20, -3
All other lineups in 27:48 - 41-40, +1

Lineups:

Vital, Greif, Gray-Lawson, Hampton, Walker	12:12	17-20, -3
Vital, Adrian, Gray-Lawson, Hampton, Walker	9:48	13-12, +1
Vital, Greif, Adrian, Hampton, Walker	8:06	13-19, -6
Adrian, Greif, Gray-Lawson, Hampton, Walker	7:34	12-9, +3
Vital, Adrian, Gray-Lawson, N'Diaye, Walker	2:00	3-0, +3
Vital, Adrian, Gray-Lawson, Hampton, N'Diaye	0:20	0-0, 0
TOTAL	40:00	58-60, -2

Difference Makers

With Gray-Lawson in 32 minutes - 45-41, +4
Without Gray-Lawson in 8 minutes - 13-19, -6

With Kelsey Adrian in 28 minutes - 41-40, +1
Without Adrian in 12 minutes - 17-20, -3

With Natasha Vital in 32 minutes - 46-51, -5
Without Vital in 8 minutes - 12-9, +3

With Lauren Greif in 28 minutes - 42-48, -6
Without Greif in 12 minutes - 16-12, +4

Contribution Evaluation

Player	Minutes	Expected	Actual	Difference
Gray-Lawson	32	-1.60	+4	+5.60
N'Diaye	2	-0.10	+3	+3.10
Adrian	28	-1.40	+1	+2.40
Walker	40	-2.00	-2	0
Hampton	38	-1.90	-5	-3.10
Vital	32	-1.60	-5	-3.40
Greif	28	-1.40	-6	-4.40

STANFORD

Player	Min	+Pts	-Pts	Pts	Reb	Ast	Diff
Rosalyn Gold-Onwude	28	45	38	3	3	2	+7
Kayla Pedersen	39	60	54	10	10	1	+6
Candice Wiggins	35	50	47	13	3	3	+3
Jayne Appel	35	50	48	16	10	1	+2
J.J. Hones	37	54	53	16	5	4	+1
Morgan Clyburn	6	10	14	0	2	0	-4
Jeanette Pohlen	20	31	36	2	0	1	-5

For Stanford, the drop-off between the starters and the reserve players was huge.  The starting lineup was a +9 in 17:38, but during the 22:22 when a substitute was involved, the Cardinal was outscored by 7, 38-31.

First vs. Second Half (minimum 2 minutes)

First Half Top - Rosalyn Gold-Onwude - 24-16, +8
Second Half Top - Jayne Appel - 28-24, +4

First Half Bottom - Jeanette Pohlen - 14-21, -7
Second Half Bottom - Rosalyn Gold-Onwude - 21-22, -1

Starting Lineup

Hones, Gold-Onwude, Wiggins, Pedersen, Appel in 17:38 - 29-20, +9
All other lineups in 22:22 - 31-38, -7

Lineups:

Hones, Gold-Onwude, Wiggins, Pedersen, Appel	17:38	29-20, +9
Hones, Pohlen, Wiggins, Pedersen, Appel	7:27	7-8, -1
Hones, Gold-Onwude, Pohlen, Pedersen, Appel	5:26	10-11, -1
Hones, Pohlen, Wiggins, Pedersen, Clyburn	3:08	8-8, 0
Pohlen, Gold-Onwude, Wiggins, Pedersen, Appel	2:55	4-5, -1
Hones, Gold-Onwude, Wiggins, Pedersen, Clyburn	1:45	0-2, -2
Hones, Pohlen, Wiggins, Clyburn, Appel	1:10	0-4, -4
Pohlen, Gold-Onwude, Wiggins, Pedersen, Clyburn	0:31	2-0, +2
TOTAL	40:00	60-58, +2

Difference Makers

With Rosalyn Gold-Onwude in 28 minutes - 45-38, +7
Without Gold-Onwude in 12 minutes - 15-20, -5

With Kayla Pedersen in 39 minutes - 60-54, +6
Without Pederson in 1 minutes - 0-4, -4

With Jeanette Pohlen in 20 minutes - 31-36, -5
Without Pohlen in 20 minutes - 29-22, +7

With Morgan Clyburn in 6 minutes - 10-14, -4
Without Clyburn in 34 minutes - 50-44, +6

Contribution Evaluation

Player	Minutes	Expected	Actual	Difference
Gold-Onwude	28	+1.40	+7	+5.60
Pedersen	39	+1.95	+6	+4.05
Wiggins	35	+1.75	+3	+1.25
Appel	35	+1.75	+2	+0.25
Hones	37	+1.85	+1	-0.85
Clyburn	6	+0.30	-4	-4.30
Pohlen	20	+1.00	-5	-6.00

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