Plus/minus: WBB vs. Arizona

The increased playing time that head coach has been giving to Kelsey Adrian has been paying off, as Adrian led the Bears with a +24 in their 66-45 over Arizona on Saturday. For two Arizona games, Adrian was an impressive +32 in just 46 minutes of playing time, which trailed just Natasha Vital's +33 in 68 minutes.

For the fifth consecutive game the Bears overcame a slow start before putting away a stubborn opponent.  Cal managed just five points during the first 8:17, and trailed 12-9 at the 8:28 mark of the first half before finishing the half with a 23-8 run to take a 32-20 lead.  While the opponents kept trying to rotate big players against the Bears' tandem of Devanei Hampton and Ashley Walker, the Bears post players just had too much skill and stamina for the Wildcats, combining for 42 points and 19 rebounds.

In recent games, head coach Joanne Boyle has brought freshman Kelsey Adrian off the bench sooner to replace Lauren Greif.  Against Arizona State, Adrian was brought in at the 14:25 mark of the first half and the 16:28 mark of the second half.  On Saturday, she was brought in at the 14:29 mark of the first half and started the second half.  While Greif provides more savoir-faire and does a better job of feeding the post, Adrian provides more length on defense to guard perimeter shooters, and has a better outside shot, although she seems hesitant to take it.

Adrian topped the plus/minus for Cal with an impressive +24 in 27 minutes.  During her 27 minutes, the Bears scored 55 points, for an average of 2.04 points per minute (81.6 point/40 minute pace).  In the 13 minutes that she didn't play, Cal scored just 11 points, for an average of 0.77 points/minute (30.8 point/40 minute pace). 

Natasha Vital was a +23 points in 30 minutes and finished with a team-high 12 assists and narrowly missed connecting with a teammate on a nifty Pearl Washington-vintage whip scoop pass on the fast break.  Although she only scored five points, she helped anchor some of Cal's stronger defensive units, as the Bears allowed only 28 points during her time on the floor (0.93 points/minute, equivalent to a 37.2 point/40 minute pace), compared to 17 points during the 10 points that she was on the bench (1.70 points/minute; equivalent to a 68 point/40 minute pace).  At the same time it should be pointed out that once the Bears were up 55-30 with 7:28 left, they eased up a little bit and went to the end of the bench.  Although Arizona scored 15 points in the last 7:28, by that point, the game's outcome was never close to being in question.

Rama N'Diaye did her usual solid job of helping gum up the opposing defense.   N'Diaye battles hard to deny the opposing post player the ball, but even if the player catches it, the chances of her getting a shot off cleanly are close to nil.   During the 17 minutes that she played, Arizona scored just 17 points, or 1 point per minute. When she was out of the game, the oppositions scored 28 points in 23 minutes, a 1.22 point per minute pace. But also consider that during the final 5:28, which was garbage time, N'Diaye was the Bears' lone big player and the defense allowed 9 points.   Setting that time aside, during the other 11:40 that she played, the Bears allowed just 8 points, as Cal outscored Arizona 23-8.

The most surprising aspect of this victory was not just Alexis Gray-Lawson's subdued performance (five points, two rebounds, three assists), but how well the Bears were able to play when she was on the bench.  Usually Gray-Lawson is near or at the top of the plus/minus chart and the Bears do well to play the opponents even while she's resting.   On Saturday, the Bears were a +4 during her 25 minutes, but an astounding +17 during the 15 minutes when she sat.

Player	Min	+Pts	-Pts	Pts	Reb	Ast	Diff
Kelsey Adrian	27	55	31	3	3	5	+24
Natasha Vital	30	51	28	5	12	2	+23
Ashley Walker	31	51	32	24	9	0	+19
Lauren Greif	25	42	27	2	2	3	+15
Rama N'Diaye	17	32	17	4	4	0	+15
Devanei Hampton	25	38	26	18	10	0	+12
Alexis Gray-Lawson	25	30	26	5	2	3	+4
Rachelle Federico	5	9	9	3	0	0	0
Shantrell Sneed	8	11	14	0	0	1	-3
Krista Foster	7	11	15	2	1	0	-4

First vs. Second Half (minimum 2 minutes)

First Half Top - Kelsey Adrian - 30-14, +16
Second Half Top - Natasha Vital - 19-8, +11

First Half Bottom - Alexis Gray-Lawson - 9-12, -3
Second Half Bottom - Krista Foster - 11-15, -4

Starting Lineup

Vital, Greif, Gray-Lawson, Hampton, Walker in 9:58 - 8-8, 0
Vital, Adrian, Gray-Lawson, Hampton, Walker in 7:00 - 11-7, +4
All other lineups in 23:02 - 47-30, +17

Big lineups:

Hampton and Walker lineups	20:52	32-22, +10
N'Diaye and Walker lineups	8:36	17-6, +11
N'Diaye lineups	5:28	9-9, 0
Hampton and N'Diaye lineups	3:04	6-2, +4
Walker lineups	1:31	2-4, -2
Hampton lineups	0:29	0-2, -2
TOTAL	40:00	66-45, +21

Difference Makers

With Kelsey Adrian in 27 minutes - 55-31, +24
Without Adrian in 13 minutes - 11-14, -3

With Natasha Vital in 30 minutes - 51-28, +23
Without Vital in 10 minutes - 15-17, -2

With Ashley Walker in 31 minutes - 51-32, +19
Without Walker in 9 minutes - 15-13, +2

With Rama N'Diaye in 17 minutes - 32-17, +15
Without N'Diaye in 23 minutes - 34-28, +6

With Alexis Gray-Lawson in 25 minutes - 30-26, +4
Without Gray-Lawson in 15 minutes - 36-19, +17

Contribution Evaluation

Player	Minutes	Expected	Actual	Difference
Adrian	27	+14.18	+24	+9.82
Vital	30	+15.73	+23	+7.25
N'Diaye	17	+8.93	+15	+6.07
Walker	31	+16.28	+19	+2.72
Greif	25	+13.87	+15	+1.13
Hampton	25	+13.13	+12	-1.13
Federico	5	+2.63	0	-2.63
Sneed	8	+4.20	-3	-7.20
Foster	7	+3.68	-4	-7.68
Gray-Lawson	25	+13.13	+4	-9.13

Weekend combined

Despite having five other players more minutes than her, Kelsey Adrian finished an impressive 2nd on the plus/minus chart for the two games this weekend.   Although she wasn't a big scorer and has occasionally shaky ballhandling the moments, the Bears were able to get very productive minutes from her. After a string of games where her plus/minus numbers were somewhere between the middle and the bottom, she was fourth on Thursday and first on Saturday.  If she's capable of giving the Bears good minutes, it'll allow other players to get more rest, which might not be an issue now, but will be during the Pac-10 tourney, when the Bears may have to play three games in three days.

While the Bears have won their past five games by margins of 5, 11, 19, 10, and 21, they've had to overcome extremely slow starts in all of them, something they can't afford to do when they're matched up against a really good team.

• Against USC, the Bears scored 10 points during the first 9:45;

• Against Oregon State, Cal scored 11 points in the first half, and no points during a 10-minute stretch;

• Against Oregon, the Bears scored 10 points during the first 11:04;

• Against Arizona State, Cal scored 6 points during the first 8:30; and

• Against Arizona, the Bears scored 9 point during the first 11:32.

Player	Min	+Pts	-Pts	Pts	Reb	Ast	Diff
Natasha Vital	68	117	84	18	5	18	+33
Kelsey Adrian	46	90	58	10	4	5	+32
Ashley Walker	67	117	89	39	20	2	+28
Devanei Hampton	62	105	82	39	22	0	+23
Lauren Greif	48	81	64	5	7	3	+17
Rama N'Diaye	24	39	24	6	6	0	+15
Alexis Gray-Lawson	59	89	79	14	6	4	+10
Shantrell Sneed	14	22	21	0	0	1	+1
Rachelle Federico	5	9	9	3	0	0	0
Krista Foster	15	7	11	2	1	0	-4
	80	136	105				+31

Starting lineups

Vital, Greif, Gray-Lawson, Hampton and Walker lineups	29:07	43-41, +2
Vital, Adrian, Gray-Lawson, Hampton and Walker lineups	15:57	28-19, +9
All other lineups	34:56	65-45, +20
TOTAL	80:00	136-105, +31

Big lineups

During Rama N'Diaye's 24 minutes in the Arizona and Arizona State games, the Bears allowed 24 points (1.00 point per minute; 40 points/40 minute pace). During the 56 minutes that he didn't play, the Bears gave up 81 points (1.45 points per minute; 58 points/40 minute pace).

Hampton and Walker lineups	53:31	95-75, +20
N'Diaye and Walker lineups	12:05	20-10, +10
Hampton and N'Diaye lineups	6:56	10-5, +5
N'Diaye lineups	5:28	9-9, 0
Walker lineups	1:31	2-4, -2
Hampton lineups	0:29	0-2
TOTAL	80:00	136-105, +31

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