MBB: Plus/minus vs. Oregon

While there's bound to be much head-scratching about Cal's 92-70 loss to Oregon after a three-game conference winning streak, there was more behind the Bears' loss than simply terrific three-point shooting by the Ducks. In this edition of plus/minus, we look at the performance of the starting lineup, the use of Jamal Boykin, as well as the weekend summary.

Men's: Oregon 92, California 70

This just in from Elizabeth Barrett Browning:

"How did Saturday's Oregon-Cal game aggravateth me? Let me count the ways.
It aggravateth me to the depth and breadth and height
My soul can reach. "

This just in from the person in the Bud Light commercial:

"Dude!"

Player	Min	+Pts	-Pts	Pts	Reb	Ast	Diff
DeVon Hardin	17	39	39	13	2	0	0
Jordan Wilkes	4	6	6	0	2	0	0
Nican Robinson	17	26	27	9	1	0	-1
Harper Kamp	10	14	22	0	1	1	-8
Nikola Knezevic	12	26	36	0	1	1	-10
Patrick Christopher	30	50	64	2	0	1	-14
Jerome Randle	26	45	62	17	0	4	-17
Ryan Anderson	36	66	83	17	6	1	-17
Eric Vierneisel	15	20	40	2	0	2	-20
Jamal Boykin	33	58	81	10	5	3	-23

First of all, don't go to the bottom of this chart and start screaming just yet, we'll get to that.

The easiest thing to do would be to attribute Oregon's 92-70 win over Cal to some unconscious shooting, after all a defense generally wants the opposition to fire up three-point shots, they just don't figure that they'll hit 80 percent of them in a half. Yet if a team starts showing that it can shoot well from the outside, it might make sense to change up the defense a little bit.  It's one thing if the opposition has a Shaq-like presence on the other team that's able to put up 20 points in a half once he hits a rhythm who commands a double-team, but if you're talking about Joevan Catron (no field goals) and Maarty Leunen (two two-point field goals), it might make sense to stay on the outside shooters.

There were several lineup issues on Saturday that were confusing.

The Bears came out with a starting lineup of Randle, Christopher, Vierneisel, Boykin, and Anderson, and they quickly went down 8-0 and trailed 11-4 before Randle was replaced with Robinson.  Cal's offense had no rhythm, it wasn't a good rebounding unit, Christopher wasn't getting to a good offensive start and Vierneisel was having issues on both ends of the court.  Cal spent much of the rest of the half trying to dig itself out of that hole, getting inspired minutes from Robinson, Hardin was a helpful presence down low even if he just managed two points and two rebounds in the first half, and the Bears seemed to have some level of success with Robinson and Randle in the game at the same time.

So what happens in the second half?

Cal rolls out the exact same starting lineup, which proceeds to get hammered, as Oregon goes on a 10-2 run in the opening 3:57 of the second half before making a lineup change when Cal brings in Robinson for Randle and Hardin for Christopher.  By this point the Bears are down 44-34 and they weren't able to cut the lead below nine the rest of the day. For the game, the starting lineup was outscored by 15 (21-6) during the 6:21 they were oncourt together, which is remarkable. During the other 33:39, the Bears were outscored by 7 (71-64), although it should be noted that the last 10 minutes of the game were pretty much extended garbage time.

And the first half backcourt combination of Randle and Robinson that played so well together in the first half (+5 in 4:53)? They were never oncourt together in the second half.

While teams always enter games with plans and a starting lineup gives them something to work from and a plan to base substitutions and use rotations, there also needs to be a level of learning that takes place during the game, to recognize what's working, what's not working and go more towards lineups and tactics that are more effective.  If something doesn't work well in the first half, and it's clear it's still not working in the second half, it wouldn't hurt to pull the plug early and go to something that if not more effective would minimally be less ineffective.

Which brings us to the case of Jamal Boykin.

Boykin's the one player out there who's heart is unquestionable. Whether it's diving for a loose ball, getting in position to take a charge, or opportunistically taking advantage of a disjoint Duck defense to race the length of the court for a lay-in, there's something about him that you wish you could bottle up and give to everybody else. Yet for all his hustle and energy, he sits at the bottom of the plus/minus chart.  What gives?

For the past few weeks, there's been a question of what his best use is.  Initially he was used as the second-tier of big men, as he and Harper Kamp would be used to give Ryan Anderson and DeVon Hardin relief.  When Hardin missed the trip to Washington, Boykin was put into the starting lineup and the Bears came back with two wins.  Boykin was used in the starting lineup for the two past games, and the Bears came out of it with a tight win over Oregon State and a bad loss over Oregon.

Boykin was part of the starting lineup that had issues, but consider that during the 34:26 that he played, he played 20:50 alongside two big players and the Bears were -4 (47-43), but during the 13:36 that he played alongside one big player, the Bears were -19 (34-15). This on the heels of a +9 alongside two bigs/+2 alongside one big split against Oregon State.  Now there may be matchups where Cal can use Boykin as an erstwhile power forward and not get burned too badly, but against to the middle to better teams in the Pac-10, the Bears would be better served to use him along the line of a three/small forward. There's more on this below.

First vs. Second Half (minimum 2 minutes)

First Half Top - DeVon Hardin - 15-8, +7
Second Half Top - Harper Kamp - 12-17, -5

First Half Bottom - Jamal Boykin - 25-34, -9
Second Half Bottom - Ryan Anderson - 34-50, -16

Difference Makers

With DeVon Hardin in 17 minutes - 39-39, 0
Without Hardin in 23 minutes - 31-53, -22

With Nican Robinson in 17 minutes - 26-27, -1
Without Robinson in 23 minutes - 44-55, -11

With Eric Vierneisel in 15 minutes - 20-40, -20
Without Vierneisel in 25 minutes - 50-52, -2

With Jamal Boykin in 33 minutes - 58-81, -23
Without Boykin in 7 minutes - 12-11, +1

Lineups

Starting lineup
Randle, Christopher, Vierneisel, Boykin and Anderson  in 7:28 - 6-21, -15
All other lineups in 32:32 - 64-71, -7

Randle/Knezevic/Robinson lineups:

Lineups with two:

Randle and Knezevic lineups	8:06	17-26, -9
Randle and Robinson lineups	4:53	10-5, +5
Robinson and Knezevic lineups	0:19	0-2, -2
TOTAL	13:18	27-33, -6

Lineups with one:

Randle lineups	12:58	18-31, -13
Robinson lineups	10:01	16-20, -4
Knezevic lineups	3:43	9-8, +1
TOTAL	26:42	43-59, -16

Boykin lineups

Alongside 2 bigs	20:50	43-47, -4
Alongside 1 big	13:36	15-34, -19
TOTAL	34:26	58-81, -23

Contribution Evaluation       

Player	Minutes	Expected	Actual	Difference
Hardin	17	-9.38	0	+9.38
Robinson	17	-9.38	-1	+8.38
Anderson	36	-19.80	-17	+2.80
Christopher	30	-16.50	-14	+2.50
Wilkes	4	-2.20	0	+2.20
Kamp	10	-5.50	-8	-2.50
Randle	26	-14.30	-17	-2.70
Knezevic	12	-6.60	-10	-3.40
Boykin	33	-18.75	-23	-4.25
Vierneisel	15	-8.25	-20	-11.25

Description: This stat measures the significance of a player's contribution to the team's effort. If a team wins by 10 points, and a player plays in half of the team's minutes, his expected contribution would be a +5. For example, when Cal defeated Grambling by 19 points. Brian Wethers played 28 minutes or 70% of the game. If we multiply 70% x +19, Wethers' expected contribution would be a +13.30. But for the game he was a +26, so his net for the game for a +12.70. In a perfect team situation, if everyone contributed equally, the difference column would consist of a row of zeros.

Weekend combined

Saturday's game had a millstone effect on everybody's numbers; the players who generally played more will tend to have the worst numbers. The one exception was DeVon Hardin. The Bears had a -2 during his 35 minutes, but a -19 during the 45 minutes that he sat.  But it would be ridiculous to take a look at that and assume that he's better suited to an off-the-bench role.

Two other things have to be taken into consideration; the first is that Eric Vierneisel had one of his poorest weekends of the year.  He's slower than most of the people that he guards, and when his man gets by him and help comes over, the defense loses its shape, and is left to scramble to guard the open man.  For him to have enough value to stay on the court, he's going to have to hit the outside shot, which wasn't happening as he scored just two points in 36 minutes this weekend. During his 36 minutes the Bears were a -24 and averaged 1.61 points per minute offensively (64.4 points/40 minute pace), during the other 44 minutes, the Bears were a +7 and averaged 2.11 points per minute (84.4 points/40 minute pace) offensively.

The other thing is that after experimenting with Jamal Boykin, using him as part of the big man rotation and then using him alongside two big men, it's increasingly clear where his most effective use is.  During the 27:10 that he played alongside two bigs (Anderson/Hardin, Anderson/Kamp, Wilkes/Kamp, Wilkes/Anderson), the Bears were a +5 and averaged about 2.19 points per minute (87.6 points/40 minute pace) on offense; but during the 32:50 that he played alongside one big (Anderson and Kamp), the Bears were a -17 and averaged 1.66 points per minute (66.4 points/40 minute pace).  Put another way, there was a -22 difference with Boykin playing alongside two bigs compared to one big.

In terms of point guard breakdowns, there was nothing conclusive that emerged from these past two games. Although given the Bears' lack of demonstrated off-the-bench outside shooting, if Robinson can continue to shoot that well, he'd make a strong case for increased playing time.

If you subscribe to the view that your starting lineup should be your best lineup and that lineup should be on floor longer than any other lineup, the Bears would be well-served by going to a Randle, Christopher, Boykin, Anderson, and Hardin starting lineup.

Player	Min	+Pts	-Pts	Pts	Reb	Ast	Diff
Jordan Wilkes	4	6	6	0	2	0	0
Nican Robinson	17	26	27	9	1	0	-1
DeVon Hardin	35	72	74	22	5	1	-2
Harper Kamp	20	35	38	8	4	1	-3
David Liss	3	5	9	0	0	1	-4
Nikola Knezevic	27	59	65	3	3	2	-6
Jerome Randle	63	121	129	28	4	6	-8
Ryan Anderson	70	136	148	39	18	2	-12
Jamal Boykin	58	112	124	23	13	7	-12
Patrick Christopher	67	125	138	17	7	5	-13
Eric Vierneisel	36	58	82	2	3	5	-24
	80	151	168				-17

Starting lineups

Randle, Vieneisel, Christopher, Boykin, Anderson in 19:17 - 28-44, -16
All other lineups in 60:43 - 123-124, -1

Randle/Knezevic/Robinson lineups:

Lineups with two:

Randle and Knezevic lineups	19:23	45-46, -1
Randle and Robinson lineups	4:53	10-5, +5
Liss and Knezevic lineups	3:24	5-9, -4
Robinson and Knezevic lineups	0:19	0-2, -2
TOTAL	27:59	60-62, -2

Lineups with one:

Randle lineups	38:17	66-78, -12
Robinson lineups	10:01	16-20, -4
Knezevic lineups	3:43	9-8, +1
TOTAL	52:01	91-106, -15

Boykin lineups

Alongside 2 bigs	27:10	59-54, +5
Alongside 1 big	32:13	53-70, -17
TOTAL	59:23	112-124, -12

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