Bear Intelligence - Cal vs. USC

In addition to the usual set of charts that look at the previous week's game by quarters, by yards, by looking at the quarterback performances, penalties and starting field position, this week's edition takes an in-depth look at Justin Forsett's march through Cal's record book.

Yardage by quarter

Once again, from a yardage standpoint, the Bears had a strong first half and not-so-strong second half.  Cal outgained USC 213-160 in the first half, but were outgained 208-186 in the second half.  Frustratingly, in the fourth quarter, their three drives were a five-play 13-yard drive that ended in a punt, a five-play, 14-yard drive that ended in a fumble, and a four play, 56-yard drive that ended up in an interception.  Most of USC's damage was recorded in their 96-yard touchdown drive, which actually featured 106 yards of offense, but they had a 10-yard setback on a holding penalty.

	Yardage By Quarter
	CAL
	TOTAL			RUN			PASS
	No.	Yds.	Avg.	No.	Yds.	Avg.	No.	Yds.	Avg.
1	23	136	5.9	15	91	6.1	8	45	5.6
2	16	77	4.8	9	14	1.6	7	63	9.0
3	21	103	4.9	13	70	5.4	8	33	4.1
4	14	83	5.9	7	40	5.7	7	43	6.1
Tot	74	399	5.4	44	215	4.9	30	184	6.1
	USC
	TOTAL			RUN			PASS
	No.	Yds.	Avg.	No.	Yds.	Avg.	No.	Yds.	Avg.
1	11	64	5.8	7	31	4.4	4	33	8.1
2	15	96	6.4	11	81	7.4	4	15	3.8
3	19	80	4.2	9	36	4.0	10	44	4.4
4	23	128	5.6	20	82	4.1	3	46	15.3
Tot	68	368	5.4	47	230	4.9	21	138	6.6

Yardage by Down

The one number that jumps out is Cal's low average on 3rd down passing.   While third-down averages are generally lower than they are for first- and second-downs, averaging 1 yard per play on nine third-down passes is extremely low.   Last week, against Washington State, Longshore was terrific on 3rd downs, going 9-of-14 for 93 yards and nine first downs.  Against USC, Longshore was 1-of-9 for 9 yards and an interception. Otherwise, the Bears generally ran and passed well. Cal ran four times on third-down, which was good for one touchdown and two first downs. The other was a four-yard run on a 3rd-and-goal, which was subsequently followed by a field goal.

USC's third-down running average was skewed by Chauncey Washington's 36-yard touchdown run. Apart from that, the Trojans averaged 3.2 yards on six third-down plays, which is still a lot since most 3rd-down runs are short-yardage plays.

	Yardage By Down
	CAL
	TOTAL			RUN			PASS
	No.	Yds.	Avg.	No.	Yds.	Avg.	No.	Yds.	Avg.
1	37	230	6.2	26	130	5.0	11	100	9.1
2	24	130	5.4	14	55	3.9	10	75	7.5
3	13	39	3.0	4	30	7.5	9	9	1.0
4	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Tot	74	399	5.4	44	215	4.9	30	184	6.1
	USC
	TOTAL			RUN			PASS
	No.	Yds.	Avg.	No.	Yds.	Avg.	No.	Yds.	Avg.
1	32	187	5.8	24	116	4.8	8	71	8.9
2	22	89	4.0	16	59	3.7	6	30	5.0
3	14	92	6.6	7	55	7.8	7	37	5.3
4	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Tot	68	368	5.4	47	230	4.9	21	138	6.6

Quarterback Comparison

After three games of being in the mid-30s or better, Longshore's performance fell against USC.  In addition to the two interceptions, he wasn't nearly as successful in completing passes for first downs and helping sustaining possessions.   Against Washington State, there was a chance that he might have turned the corner as he successfully executed the short yardage passing game and came through on several key third down pass plays. Yet the USC game was similar to the UCLA and Arizona State games in that the fourth quarter, the passing game was ineffective, but also largely aberrant when compared to the passing effectiveness at other stretches in the game.

Quarterback Analysis
	Succ. %	TP	FD+TD	TP	Yds.	Avg.	Att.	Co.	Pct.	Yds.	FD	TD	Int.	Sacks/ Scram
														Pl.	Yds.
Longshore, CAL	26.7%	30	8	30	184	6.1	29	13	44.8	199	7	1	2	1	-15
Booty, USC	42.9%	21	9	21	138	6.6	20	11	55.0	129	7	2	0	1	9
Note:   The Success Percentage attempts to measure a QB's effectiveness by looking at how often a quarterback achieves a successful result (a first down (by passing or running) or touchdown) out of all pass plays attempted. Current QB rating methodology does not include either sacks or scrambles  - this rewards QBs taking sacks instead of throwing incompletions. In addition, QB rating formulas reward the eight-yard pass on 3rd-and-12 (i.e., it's a completion, it's not an interception, and there's an above average yardage gain).  Key: Succ.% - Touchdowns + First Downs/Total Plays, TP - pass attempts + sacks + scrambles, FD - first downs, TD - touchdowns, Yds - Yards, Avg - Average, Att. - Attempts, Co. - Completions, Pct. - Completion %, Int - Interceptions, Pl. - Plays)

Jahvid Best

Best had a couple of nice runs against USC, nearly breaking one for a big score.  As of Monday evening, it's uncertain whether the condition of his hip injury will affect his availability for Saturday's game against Washington.  With 29 carries, if has three more carries for 96 yards, he'll tie Charlie Sarver.

	Year	Carries	Yds	Avg.
vs. Colorado St.	2007	2	73	36.5
vs. Tennessee	2007	4	46	11.5
vs. Louisiana Tech	2007	3	27	9.0
vs. Arizona	2007	4	15	3.8
vs. Oregon	2007	3	6	2.0
vs. Oregon St.	2007	1	11	11.0
vs. UCLA	2007	3	-6	-2.0
vs. Arizona St.	2007	2	5	2.5
vs. Washington St.	2007	4	26	6.5
vs. USC	2007	3	18	6.0
Total		29	221	7.6
Charlie Sarver	1949	32	317	9.9
Marshawn Lynch	2004	71	628	8.8
Justin Forsett	2005	132	999	7.6

Justin Forsett

In what was arguable his best game of the year, Forsett showed an extra burst that allowed him to hit the hole more quickly and burst through for decent gains.   The Bears took advantage of situations where the USC brought in an extra defensive back or pulled a defender out of the box, and were able to create holes for Forsett.

He ran well in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th quarters, and also caught a 34-yard pass to took the Bears into USC territory on their final drive of the game. 

Scroll down to the end of the article to see how Forsett's doing in his pursuit of several Cal rushing records.

By Down				By Quarter
No.	Yds.	Avg.		No.	Yds.	Avg.
21	110	5.2	1	9	57	6.5
8	32	4.0	2	8	10	1.3
2	22	11.0	3	9	58	6.4
--	--	--	4	5	39	7.8
31	164	5.3	tot	31	164	5.3

Chauncey Washington

Washington ran well in every down and every quarter.  He didn't have one of those games that was skewed by a couple of very long runs, he did have his 36-yard touchdown run as well as 24- and 22-yard runs, but he also had a number of five-to-eight yard runs where where was able to carry tacklers and put the Trojan offense in 2nd-and-short and 3rd-and short situations.

By Down				By Quarter
No.	Yds.	Avg.		No.	Yds.	Avg.
17	116	6.8	1	4	33	8.3
9	61	6.8	2	7	75	10.7
3	43	14.3	3	7	35	5.0
--	--	--	4	11	77	7.0
29	220	7.6	tot	29	220	7.6

Big Plays

For a game where they managed just 399 yards, the Bears did a good job ripping off long gain.  Their 17 plays of 10 yards or more represented 22.9% of their players, which is higher than the 15% to 18% range that they've had for most games this year. 

The percentage of big plays was about the same for both teams - the Bears had four of their six big gains in the second half, while USC has two of their big gains on the same fourth quarter drive that resulted in the go-ahead, and ultimately game-winning touchdown.

	10 yards or more	20 yards or more
California	17/74 (22.9%)	6/74 (8.1%)
USC	12/68 (17.8%)	5/68 (7.4%)

Starting Field Position

USC's 174-yard starting field position advantage was significant considering that both teams' offenses each gained less than 400 yards.

One thing that surprised many observers was how often USC chose to punt the ball on short yardage 4th-down situations instead of going for it.  Yet by giving the Bears long fields to work with, it gave the defense more room for error and put less pressure on the offense which doesn't have nearly the score-at-will ability that it did in years past.

The Bears only had one possession start in USC territory, but had 10 of their 13 possessions start at their 30-yard line or worse.

Although USC's average starting field position was considerably better, they generally had very good or very bad field position.  Four of their 14 possessions started at the 50 or better, but eight of their possessions began at the 30 or worse, with five beginning inside their 20.

	1st half	2nd half	Total
California	23.0	23.3	23.2
USC	31.0	36.1	33.9
Bears advantage/disadvantage	-48	-126	-174

Inside the 30

The Bears managed to cross the USC 30 on just three of 13 possessions, but were able to score all three times. The Trojans crossed the Cal 30 on five of 14 possessions - once was on a 36-yard touchdown run by Chauncey Washington, USC scored on three of their four other possessions, with the other one ending up in a fumble deep in Cal territory.

While the offense still has issues in goal line situations - they were in one case by running out of a two-wide receiver set, getting stuffed, and then going with a three tight-end plus a fullback set, which almost announces that the next play will be a run.   It can be a effective if the team's shown that it's consistently overpowering the defense in goal line situations, or if a tight end is periodically allowed to slip behind the secondary to give the defense something else to keep an eye on.  Otherwise, it makes for uphill sledding.

	TD	FG	FGNG	TO	Time	Opp.	Opp. %	Pts/Pos	PtsPos%
California	2	1	0	0	0	3/3	100%	17/21	80.9%
USC	2	1	0	1	0	3/4	75.0%	17/28	60.4%
Key - TD-touchdown; FG-field goal; FGNG - field goal no good; Opp. - Opportunities; Opp.% - Opportunities possible; Pts/Pos - Points/Points Possible; PtsPos% - % of points possible scored

Pass attempt breakdown

Cal's mix of passes to its wide receivers, tight ends and running backs stayed about the same. While Cal will shift between three-receiver and two-receiver formations, and will periodically use four wide receivers, it's extremely rare when the fourth receiver ever has a pass thrown his way. 

There were also two plays that were designed to be screens to the left, where the Trojan defense jumped the routes or blew up the play, but Longshore wisely decided to pull down the ball and run with it, instead of forcing passes into dangerous situations. 

Passes to Cal Receivers
Receiver	Att.	Comp.	Yds.
DeSean Jackson	7	5	64
Robert Jordan	7	2	36
Lavelle Hawkins	6	3	53
Justin Forsett	3	2	45
Craig Stevens	3	0	0
Jahvid Best	2	0	0
Cameron Morrah	1	1	1
Note:   Longshore was 10-of-20 to wide receivers for 153 yards, 2-of-5 for 45 yards to running backs, and 1-of-4 for 1 yard to tight ends.

Penalties

Penalties weren't nearly the nagging issue for the Bears that they've been in past games. The offense was whistled for just one holding call and one false start, while the defense was called for a pass interference call and an offsides. USC was called for four offensive penalties and for defensive penalties. 

Although Cal/USC games are usually emotional, this game was bereft of personal foul and unsportsmanlike penalties.  There were a few blocks that might have been held a little long, and a few tackles made by the sidelines that could have gone either way, and there was Rey Maluaga's wild swing at Andrew Larson that should have warranted an ejection, but otherwise both teams played under control.

CAL OFFENSE			USC DEFENSE
10	Holding		5	Offsides
5	False Start		5	Offsides
			3	Offsides
			2	Pass Interference
CAL DEFENSE			USC  OFFENSE
15	Pass Interference		10	Holding
4	Offsides		5	False Start
			5	False Start
			5	Illegal Forward Pass
CAL SPECIAL TEAMS			USC SPECIAL TEAMS
11	Illegal Block
5	Running into the kicker

Forsett's March Through The Record Book

Before this season, The Bear Insider ran an article looking at Justin Forsett's chances at setting various Cal's rushing and scoring records. With two, and possibly three games left in the season, it's time to revisit Forsett's progress.   With 13 rushing touchdowns, he has an excellent chance at breaking J.J. Arrington's single season rushing touchdown record of 15 set in 2004.  And, yes, he still has a chance at breaking the school's career rushing record.

Career Yards

Rank	Player	Att.	Yds.	Avg.
1	Russell White (90-92)	663	3367	5.1
2.	Marshawn Lynch (04-06)	490	3230	6.6
3.	Joe Igber (99-02)	678	3124	4.6
4.	Chuck Muncie (73-75)	549	3052	5.6
5.	Paul Jones (75, 77-79)	715	2930	4.1
6.	Justin Forsett (04-present)	503	2843	5.6
7.	J.J. Arrington (03-04)	396	2625	6.6
8.	John Olszewski (50-52)	416	2504	6.0
9.	Reynard Rutherford (92-95)	491	2256	4.6
10.	Lindsey Chapman (91-93)	444	2190	4.9

Outlook:  With three (likely) games left in the season, Forsett still has an outside shot at the school record.  He'd need to average 175 games during the next three games, which isn't an impossibility, but it would be a more prolific pace than he's run at this season.  If he continutes at his current pace, he'd probably finish somewhere around Marshawn Lynch and Joe Igber.

Single-Season Yards

Rank	Player	Year	Att.	Yds.	Avg.	TD
1	J.J. Arrington	2004	189	2018	7.0	15
2.	Chuck Muncie	1975	228	1460	6.4	13
3.	Marshawn Lynch	2006	223	1356	6.1	11
4.	Marshawn Lynch	2005	196	1246	6.4	10
5.	Adimchinobe Echemandu	2003	238	1195	5.0	13
6.	Russell White	1991	241	1177	4.9	14
7.	Justin Forsett	2007	241	1169	4.9	13
8.	Joe Igber	2002	241	1130	4.7	7
9.	Jack Jensen	1948	148	1080	7.3	7
10.	Russell White	1992	206	1069	5.2	9

Outlook:  If Forsett can average 100 yards over the next three games, that'll give him the 2nd highest single-season total in Cal history.  He should set the school record for most carries in a season by 60 to 80 carries.

Career Rushing TDs

Rank	Player	Att.	Yds.	Avg.	TD
1.	Russell White (90-92)	663	3367	5.1	35
2.	Chuck Muncie (73-75)	549	3052	5.6	32
3.	Marshawn Lynch (04-06)	490	3230	6.6	29
4.	Justin Forsett (04-present)	503	2843	5.6	24
5.	Paul Jones (75, 77-79)	715	2930	4.1	22
6.	Lindsey Chapman (91-93)	444	2190	4.9	22
7.	J.J. Arrington (03-04)	396	2625	6.6	20
8.	John Tuggle (79-82)	434	1813	4.2	16
9.	Joe Igber (99-02)	678	3124	4.6	16
10.	John Olszewski (50-52)	416	2504	6.0	14
11.	Reynard Rutherford (92-95)	491	2256	4.6	13

Outlook:  For a runner whose only been a full-time starter for one year, Forsett's shot up this list nicely.  Depending on how things go the rest of the way, he could tie or overtake Lynch for third place.

Single-season rushing TDs

Rank	Player	Year	Att.	Yds.	Avg.	TD
1.	J.J. Arrington	2004	289	2018	7.0	15
2.	Russell White	1991	241	1177	4.9	14
	Lindsey Chapman	1993	207	1037	5.0	14
4.	Chuck Muncie	1975	228	1460	6.4	13
	Adimchinobe Echemandu	2003	238	1195	5.0	13
	Justin Forsett	2007	241	1169	4.9	13
6.	Jim Monachino	1949	138	781	5.7	12
7.	Chuck Muncie	1973	157	801	5.1	11
	Marshawn Lynch	2006	223	1356	6.1	11
9.	Marshawn Lynch	2005	196	1246	6.4	10
10.	Gary Fowler	1968	162	665	4.1	9
	Russell White	1968	206	1069	5.2	9

Outlook: With three games left in the season, Forsett is just two scores away from tying the school record for touchdowns.  He's averaged 1.3 touchdowns for the season, so keeping up at that rate, he'd finish with 17 touchdowns.

Career 100-yard rushing games

Rank	Player	Yds.	100-yard games
1.	Marshawn Lynch	3230	17
2.	Chuck Muncie	3052	15
	Russell White	3367	15
4.	J.J. Arrington	2625	14
5	Justin Forsett	2843	13
6.	John Olsewski	2504	10
	Joe Igber	3124	10
8.	Four tied		6

Outlook:  With three games left in the season, Lynch's school record of 17 100-yard games is safe, but he has an excellent shot of having at least two 100-yard games that would time him with Chuck Muncie and Russell White.

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