Bear Intelligence - Looking ahead to Saturday

This week, Bear Intelligence looks at the upcoming weekend's games involving Pac-10 teams, by looking at each team's quarterback from the standpoint of how they've performed in home and away games, thus far. Find out which two quarterbacks have done better in road games than home games and why you might want to think twice about picking Oregon State and Arizona to win in upsets this weekend.

Keep in mind that home and away comparisons should be taken with a grain of salt because a) since most teams have played two to four home or away games, the chances of numbers being skewed because of a stat-padding fiesta against a hopeless opponent is very much there, b) depending on the team, there are cases where either the home or away portion of a schedule has had substantially more difficult opposition than the other part of a team's schedule,  and c) everybody in the Pac-10 is at a different point in their schedule, some have played most of their tough games early, others won't get until the tougher part of their schedule until later.

Each quarterbacks chart includes a game-by-game listing of his home or away games, depending on where his team will be this Saturday.  The home (or away) subtotals will be shaded and then can be compared to his away (or home) splits.  For example, Nate Longshore will be playing at home this Saturday, so his chart will have a listing of each of his home games this season along with a shaded row that gives his home subtotals. Underneath that row is a subtotal for his away games this season.  For Oregon State's Sean Canfield his game listings are for road games.  Following each quarterback's chart is a comment column.

Since UCLA has a bye, their chart is not included this week, but with their QB situation in the air, a chart isn't likely to provide any sort of enlightenment.

Oregon State at Cal

Sean Canfield - Oregon State

	At.	Co.	Pct.	Yds.	Int	TD	Rtg	Att.	Yds.	Avg.
at Cincinnati	31	18	58.1	131	3	0	74.21	1	4	4.0
at Arizona St.	48	28	58.3	324	5	2	107.95	2	8	4.0
Away	79	46	58.2%	455	8	2	94.71	3	12	4.0
Home	114	68	59.6%	725	5	5	118.77	11	-40	-3.6

Comment:  While upsets by Appalachian State and Stanford would suggest that anything is possible this season, a good look at this table would suggest that Oregon State's chances of upsetting Cal this Saturday are very, very, very small.   It's one thing if a quarterback's home/away splits were along the line of a 150/120, but for a quarterback to have a passer rating of 94.7 in two away games, even if they were against Arizona State and Stanford, means that he's giving his team almost zero chance of winning.  The one standout number is his 8 interceptions in 79 pass attempts.  If Canfield struggles early, look for head coach Mike Riley to make a quick chance and go with Lyle Moevao.

Nate Longshore - California

	At.	Co.	Pct.	Yds.	Int	TD	Rtg	Att.	Yds.	Avg.
Tennessee	28	19	67.9	241	0	2	163.74	3	-4	-1.3
Louisiana Tech	33	22	66.7	230	1	2	139.16	2	-8	-4.0
Arizona	30	16	53.3	235	1	1	123.46	0	0	0
Home	91	57	62.6%	706	2	5	141.54	5	-12	-2.4
Away	72	47	65.3%	431	0	2	124.73	5	-2	-0.4

Comment:  Longshore's played better at home than the road this year. While his performances have been solid, he hasn't yet had a breakout game this season like he did last year when he won the Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Week on multiple occasions.  There's ample evidence to suggest that his best games this season are in front of him, which can't be good news for the rest of the conference considering that with Longshore performing at this level, the Golden Bears have already risen to #2 in the country.  His one millstone game was his 107.8 game (19/29 for 146 yards, 0 TDs, 0 Int) against Colorado State.  Longshore's 2nd road game was the Oregon game (136.14, 28/43 for 285 yards, 2 TDs, 0 Ints) which was one of his better road games in awhile.

Washington State at Oregon

Alex Brink - Washington State

	At.	Co.	Pct.	Yds.	Int	TD	Rtg	Att.	Yds.	Avg.
at Wisconsin	27	17	63.0	171	0	1	128.38	3	21	7.0
at USC	31	17	54.8	165	1	2	114.39	6	-5	-0.8
at Arizona	56	35	62.5	347	1	3	128.65	5	6	1.2
Away	114	69	60.5%	683	2	6	124.71	14	22	1.6
Home	133	91	68.4%	1145	3	11	163.52	15	47	3.1

Comment:  Brink's another quarterback who's played better at home, although in fairness it should be pointed out that two of his road games have been against USC and Wisconsin, while he was able to pad his numbers against San Diego State (38/47 for 469 yards, 5 TDs, 1 Int, 195.52 rating) and Idaho (174.97 passer rating).   Yet even against Arizona, which is a step down from the Badgers and Trojans, Brink had a very ordinary game, with a passer rating of just 124.71.  It's not likely he'll be able to improve upon his away numbers at Autzen Stadium this Saturday.

Dennis Dixon - Oregon

	At.	Co.	Pct.	Yds.	Int	TD	Rtg	Att.	Yds.	Avg.
Houston	15	9	60.0	134	0	2	179.04	15	141	9.4
Fresno St.	20	14	70.0	139	0	2	161.38	8	59	7.4
California	44	31	70.5	306	2	1	127.29	8	17	2.1
Home	79	54	68.4%	579	2	5	145.74	31	217	7.0
Away	61	43	70.5%	659	0	7	199.11	25	91	3.6

Comment:  In each of Oregon's two road games, Dixon's had passer ratings of 201.71 (Michigan) and 197.30 (Stanford).  It would be tough to duplicate those at home, and even a generally respectable home passer rating of  145.74 is still more than 50 points below his road numbers. It's unlikely that his home/road splits would be this different at the end of the season, and a good game against Washington State should help close the margin.  His game against Cal was easily his worst game of the year as the two interceptions and just one touchdown out of 44 attempts offset his 70.5 completion percentage.

TCU at Stanford

Tavita Pritchard - Stanford

	At.	Co.	Pct.	Yds.	Int	TD	Rtg	Att.	Yds.	Avg.
at USC	30	11	36.7	149	1	1	82.72	14	27	1.9
San Jose St.	2	1	50.0	10	0	0	92.00	1	18	18.0

Comment:  Helping lead Stanford to a t-shirt inspiring win over USC might mean that Tavita Pritchard might never have to pay for a drink again in his life, too many more games with QB ratings of 82.72 won't do much to help him keep his starting job.  While he  must be given credit for his play in the 4th quarter in helping  Stanford beat then-#1 USC, one can't overlook the fact that he generally didn't have a good game.  By comparison, T.C. Ostrander had a slightly better quarterback rating of 116.42 after the team's first four games which were all at home.   Even for those games, a 146.71 game (18/28 for 220 yards, 2 TDs, 1 Int) helped offset three weak games against UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona State.  With Oregon, Arizona State, and USC off the schedule, there's a good chance for Stanford's quarterbacks to improve their numbers in the coming weeks.

Arizona at USC

Willie Tuitama - Arizona

	At.	Co.	Pct.	Yds.	Int	TD	Rtg	Att.	Yds.	Avg.
At BYU	36	26	72.2	216	0	1	131.79	2	-19	-9.5
At Cal	61	42	68.9	309	2	1	110.26	6	-21	-3.5
At Oregon St.	38	18	47.4	222	3	0	80.65	8	-75	-9.4
Away	135	86	63.7%	747	5	2	107.67	16	-115	-7.2
Home	128	75	58.6%	1075	2	13	159.53	7	-16	-2.3

Comment:  Maybe the hotel beds are too firm, maybe he can't get a good night's sleep because he's too busy watching SpectraVision, or maybe he has trouble getting it going when Arizona wears white, but Tuitama generally hasn't played well on the road.  For a quarterback to have a passer rating close to 100 in any sort of disaggregation isn't very good, and what's worse for Tuitama is his difficulties seem to be mounting the farther he gets into the season. His home stats were abetted by home games against Northern Arizona and New Mexico, and a 217.95 game (22/31 for 346 yards, 5 TDs, no Ints) against Washington State.

John David Booty - USC

	At.	Co.	Pct.	Yds.	Int	TD	Rtg	Att.	Yds.	Avg.
Idaho	32	21	65.6	206	1	3	144.39	1	2	2.0
Washington St.	36	29	80.6	289	1	4	179.10	1	-4	-4.0
Stanford	40	24	60.0	364	4	2	132.94	4	-29	-7.2
Home	108	74	68.5%	859	6	9	151.72	6	-31	-5.2
Away	67	39	58.2%	380	2	3	114.66	3	-15	-5.0

Comment:  Just as is the case with most quarterbacks on this list, Booty plays better on home than on the road. That still doesn't explain his four-interception game against Stanford or how the Cardinal pass rush was able to put pressure on him throughout the fourth quarter.  He's finding out that a quarterback's life changes in a hurry when two big, talented, and experienced receivers leave the program and are replaced by other players who may have the ability to become decent players in time, but are currently a long way away.  Booty's away numbers are far from distinguished and USC's two road games were against Nebraska and Washington, who aren't exactly strong tests.  With games at Cal and at Oregon coming up in the next month, his home/road disparity could get wider.

Washington at Arizona St.

Jake Locker - Washington

	At.	Co.	Pct.	Yds.	Int	TD	Rtg	Att.	Yds.	Avg.
at Syracuse	19	14	73.7	142	0	0	136.47	10	83	8.3
at UCLA	36	17	47.2	216	2	4	123.18	15	92	6.1
Away	55	31	56.4%	358	2	4	127.77	25	175	7.0
Home	86	42	48.8%	436	5	2	87.47	48	236	4.9

Comment:  At first it may seem odd that Locker's numbers would be so much better away from home until you remember that his home games were against Ohio State, Boise State and USC, and his away games were against Syracuse and UCLA, two teams that are having all kinds of issues this season.  Even though the Orangemen and the Bruins have had problems this fall, it's still impressive for a freshman to come in and play solidly against them.  Arizona State will be the toughest road team that the Huskies have played this season by a considerable degree.

Rudy Carpenter - Arizona State

	At.	Co.	Pct.	Yds.	Int	TD	Rtg	Att.	Yds.	Avg.
San Jose St.	20	14	70.0	197	0	2	185.74	2	1	0.5
Colorado	37	19	51.4	269	1	3	133.77	11	21	1.9
San Diego St.	21	15	71.4	200	1	2	173.34	2	4	2.0
Oregon St.	36	25	69.4	361	1	4	184.79	5	-21	-4.2
Home	94	59	62.8%	830	3	9	162.15	18	4	0.2
Away	54	39	72.2%	476	3	3	153.49	17	-88	-5.2

Comment:  Carpenter's had strong numbers all year; and has a smaller home/road differential (+8.56) than most quarterbacks.  He's more accurate on the road, throws more touchdowns at home, but for some reason his pass blocking has   issues away from Sun Devil Stadium. He's had three home games with passer ratings over 170, with the game against Colorado being the exception. 

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