One more day, one more look

With hours counting down until California's first-round game against North Carolina State, it's time to squeeze in another perspective about Cal, North Carolina State, Texas and Penn. Given the road records of the first three teams as well as their records in the last 10 games, no team has been clearly dominant. Regardless of who wins on Friday, Sunday's game is far, far from a foregone conclusion.

One of the key criteria that the NCAA Tournament Selection committee looks at in evaluating teams in quality wins. And just about every major conference team in the tournament has a couple of quality wins. The problem is that most of those quality wins were at home, and the NCAA Tournament is generally not played at home.

In looking at Cal and the other three teams that will be bracketed with them in Dallas, give careful consideration to two facts - how well the team plays away from home, and how well they've been playing down the stretch. Each team below has two sets of charts - one chart shows the team's away games along with its postseason tourney games, the scores, the opponent's RPI and whether or not the the opponent is an NCAA team.

The second chart shows the same information, only for the team's last 10 games

California Golden Bears           (20-10, 12-6 conf., #55 RPI)    8-6 Road, 6-4 Last 10

	ROAD			RPI	NCAA?
11/18	Eastern Michigan	65-67	L	306
12/10	Kansas	56-69	L	20	Y
12/29	USC	62-58	W	117
12/31	UCLA	68-61	W	10	Y
1/13	Stanford	61-75	L	86
1/19	Arizona St.	88-58	W	180
1/21	Arizona	55-60	L	23	Y
2/2	Oregon St.	69-52	W	174
2/4	Oregon	62-60	W	147
2/23	Washington St.	43-41	W	166
2/26	Washington	62-73	L	35	Y
3/9	USC N	82-67	W	117
3/10	Oregon N	91-87	W	147
3/11	UCLA N	52-71	L	10	Y

Note:  Cal's 68-61 win over UCLA is the highlight here, but was more than three months ago.   The Bears went 1-4 on the road against other NCAA teams that ended up becoming #2, #4, #5 and #8 seeds, and were able to remain competitive for most of the time during those four losses. It's a significant reversal from past years when Cal's road games against the Pac-10 elite would result in a majestic beatdown or two.  Tossing aside the opening loss to Eastern Michigan when the Bears were depleted with injuries, they've generally beaten the teams they were supposed to beat, which shouldn't be taken for granted considering there are 40 teams in the NIT that didn't.  Should the Bears get past North Carolina State and have to face Texas, they'll give the Longhorns a difficult game.

	LAST 10			RPI	NCAA?
2/9	Stanford	65-62	W	86	Y
2/16	Arizona	75-66	W	23
2/18	Arizona St.	64-65	L	180
2/23	at Washington St.	43-41	W	166
2/26	at Washington	62-73	L	35	Y
3/2	UCLA	58-67	L	10	Y
3/4	USC	71-60	W	117
3/9	USC N	82-67	W	117
3/10	Oregon N	91-87	W	147
3/11	UCLA N	52-71	L	10	Y

Note:  It's hard to draw a bead on exactly how good the Bears are. On one hand, they went 1-3 against teams in the RPI top 35, on the other they went 4-1 against teams that had an RPI of 117 or lower. Cal finished 6-4 coming down the stretch, with one good win (Arizona), one bad loss (Arizona State) and one very good loss (the OT loss to UCLA).  In the Washington and 2nd UCLA loss, the Bears let the game get away from them in the last 10 minutes of the game. The Bears have played most of their games very tight; regardless of the quality of the opposition.  While almost every player has increased their free throw shooting percentage substantially this year, one more made free throw in regulation against Arizona State and UCLA, and this is all of a sudden an 8-2 chart with an added win over an RPI #10 team. 

North Carolina State Wolfpack        (21-9, 10-6 conf.,  #51 rpi)       Road 6-6,  Last 10 5-5

	ROAD			RPI	NCAA?
11/26	Notre Dame	61-48	W	95
11/30	Iowa	42-45	L	7	Y
12/22	Alabama	68-64	W	57	Y
1/7	North Carolina	69-82	L	12	Y
1/10	Boston College	78-60	W	22	Y
1/18	Duke	68-81	L	1	Y
1/29	Clemson	94-85	W	77
2/8	Miami	86-77	W	78
2/12	Georgia Tech	68-71	L	160
2/18	Virginia Tech	70-64	W	146
3/4	Wake Forest	63-76	L	85
3/10	Wake Forest N	71-82	L	85

Note:  North Carolina State was finished with all of their tough road games two months ago, highlighted with wins over Alabama and an 18-point clubbing of Boston College.  Nonetheless, the road record was 6-6, and they ended up splitting the last six. Considering that no team was higher than an RPI #77, and none of the wins was by more than 10 points, the Wolfpack weren't exactly striking fear into the hearts of opponents.  

	LAST 10			RPI	NCAA?
2/1	Virginia	66-64	W	79
2/5	Maryland	62-58	W	49
2/8	at Miami	86-77	W	78
2/12	at Georgia Tech	68-71	L	160
2/15	Florida St.	86-64	W	63
2/18	at Virginia Tech	70-64	W	146
2/22	North Carolina	71-95	L	12	Y
2/25	Boston College	72-74	L	22	Y
3/4	at Wake Forest	63-76	L	85
3/10	Wake Forest N	71-82	L	85

Note:  Few teams have less momentum coming into the tournament than North Carolina State. Four straight losses including back-to-back thuds to conference doormat Wake Forest have turned a once-promising season into a plain ol' season.  Our of their last 10 games, they haven't had to play a strong team on the road - facing RPI #78 Miami, #160 Georgia Tech, #146 Virginia Tech, and #85 Wake Forest - and even with that the Wolfpack went 2-2.

Texas (27-6, 13-3 conf,  #8,RPI)   Road 9-3, Last 10 7-3

	ROAD			RPI	NCAA?
12/5	at Rice	85-58	W	218
1/2	at Memphis	69-58	W	4	Y
1/9	at Iowa State	78-58	W	93
1/21	at Baylor	66-47	W	167
2/1	at Missouri	66-53	W	139
2/6	at Texas Tech	65-44	W	136
2/19	at Oklahoma St.	60-81	L	89
2/22	at Kansas St.	65-64	W	110
3/1	at Texas A&M	43-46	L	44	Y
3/10	vs. Texas Tech N	77-70	W	136
3/11	vs. Texas A&M N	74-70	W	44	Y
3/12	vs. Kansas N	68-80	L	20	Y

Note: Texas has done well on the road, their 9-3 record being highlighted by a win over RPI #4 Memphis.  They had a series of decent wins against the soft underbelly of the Big 12 conference, but the 21-point loss at Oklahoma State showed that they're fully capable of throwing up a stinker.  In the past month, they've played four games against RPI top 100 teams and they've gone 1-3, and the one win was a four-point victory.

	LAST 10			RPI	NCAA?
2/11	Nebraska	78-59	W	96
2/14	Baylor	90-63	W	167
2/19	at Oklahoma St.	60-81	L	89
2/22	at Kansas St.	65-64	W	110
2/25	Kansas	80-55	W	20	Y
3/1	at Texas A&M	43-46	L	44	Y
3/5	Oklahoma	72-48	W	16	Y
3/10	Texas Tech N	77-70	W	136
3/11	Texas A&M N	74-70	W	44	Y
3/12	Kansas N	68-80	L	20	Y

Note:  Texas had four blowout wins in their last 10 games, but all of those wins were at home.  Away from Austin, their best win has been a 7-point victory over RPI #136 Texas Tech.  Having the Big 12 Tournament in Dallas, did not appear to give the Longhorns any added boost relative to the scoreboard.   While going 3-2 in five games against RPI top 44 teams is respectable, it's not going to encourage anyone to pencil them into the Final Four on their bracket sheet.   Their lack of dominance makes them very much beatable, even this weekend.

Pennsylvania Quakers              (20-8, 12-2 conf., #98 rpi)      8-4 Road, 8-2 Last 10

	ROAD			RPI	NCAA?
12/7	Duke	59-72	L	1	Y
12/29	Hawaii	58-55	W	100
12/31	BYU-Hawaii	72-62	W	NA
1/4	Citadel	84-49	W	320
1/9	Fordham	63-78	L	134
2/10	Dartmouth	51-70	W	311
2/11	Harvard	81-68	W	214
2/17	Columbia	57-59	L	289
2/18	Cornell	67-56	W	207
3/3	Yale	57-55	W	197
3/4	Brown	74-68	W	273
3/7	Princeton	59-60	L	199

Note:  A respectable loss to Duke is the high point here. Penn hasn't played any other exceptionally difficult teams. In fact Hawaii is the only other opponent in the top 100, and Penn beat them in Hawaii which isn't easy to do.   Other than the Hawaii win, the best road win was over RPI #197 Yale, yet was by just two points.  However, they also lost to #289 Columbia.  The biggest road loss was to #134 Fordham by 15 points, which suggests that Penn could give Texas quite a battle for a large chunk of the first half.

	LAST 10			RPI	NCAA?
2/10	at Dartmouth	70-51	W	311
2/11	at Harvard	81-68	W	214
2/14	Princeton	60-41	W	199
2/17	at Columbia	57-59	L	289
2/18	at Cornell	67-56	W	207
2/24	Harvard	74-71	W	214
2/25	Dartmouth	68-52	W	311
3/3	at Yale	57-55	W	197
3/4	at Brown	74-68	W	273
3/7	at Princeton	59-60	L	199

Note: The two toughest teams that Penn played during their final 10 games was RPI #197 Yale, who they beat by two points, and RPI #199 Princeton where they split two games. The only two teams in the NCAA with RPIs lower than that are #206 Southern and #272 Hampton - the two play-in teams.

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