Fun With Numbers - Cal vs Air Force

Fun With Numbers is a statistical look at the previous Saturday's football game. It breaks down yardage totals by quarter and by down, evaluates quarterback performance, and also looks at starting field position, penalties, and other items of interest. During the course of the season, Fun With Numbers is a premium feature - to read it on a regular basis, sign up here.

Game One - September 4, 2004
	1	2	3	4	F
California (1-0)	14	7	14	21	56
Air Force (0-1)	7	7	0	0	14

Even with a first half that was closer than most Bear Faithful would have liked, California quashed all of the concerns about Air Force's option attack and playing at altitude in its 56-14 win. The Bears' 56-point total is the highest for any season-opening road game, surpassing the previous mark of 45 points scored at San Jose State in 1996.  

Cal's offense was dominant throughout as the Bears gained at least 110 yards and averaged at least 8 yards per play in each quarter.  Defensively, Cal held the Falcons to just 74 yards in the second half. Although Cal experienced some difficulty defending the option in the first half, they never allowed Air Force any big plays, allowing only one play longer than 20 yards in the first half, and only two for the whole game.

	By Quarter
	CAL										AIR FORCE
	TOTAL			RUN			PASS				TOTAL			RUN			PASS
	No.	Yds.	Avg.	No.	Yds.	Avg.	No.	Yds.	Avg.		No.	Yds.	Avg.	No.	Yds.	Avg.	No.	Yds.	Avg.
1	20	160	8.0	11	55	5.0	9	105	11.7		21	98	4.7	17	79	4.7	4	19	4.8
2	11	110	10.0	6	108	18.0	5	2	0.4		19	116	6.1	16	76	4.8	3	40	13.3
3	12	139	11.6	8	63	7.9	4	76	19.0		17	39	2.3	12	31	2.6	5	8	1.6
4	19	161	8.5	16	130	8.1	3	31	10.3		14	35	2.5	7	17	2.4	7	18	2.6
Tot	62	570	9.2	41	356	8.7	21	214	10.2		71	288	4.1	52	203	4.0	19	85	4.5
Note:  Cal was consistently strong on offense, averaging at least 8.0 yards per play and gaining at least 110 yards in each quarter.  While the Bears' 570 yards wasn't enough to crack their all-time top five single-game yardage total, Cal ran 62 plays on Saturday. Last year, the Bears averaged 71 plays per game, with a season-low total of 63 (against Oregon State)....The effectiveness of Cal's defensive adjustments is reflected in the fact that Air Force gained 214 yards (5.3 avg.) in the first half, but only 74 yards (2.4 avg.) in the second. Also, in the first half, Air Force ran 24 plays in Bear territory, but only three in the second half.

	By Down
DOWN	CAL										STANFORD
	TOTAL			RUN			PASS				TOTAL			RUN			PASS
	No.	Yds.	Avg.	No.	Yds.	Avg.	No.	Yds.	Avg.		No.	Yds.	Avg.	No.	Yds.	Avg.	No.	Yds.	Avg.
1	31	323	10.4	21	237	11.3	10	86	8.6		29	115	4.0	21	63	3.0	8	52	6.5
2	21	115	5.5	14	62	4.4	7	53	7.6		24	87	3.6	20	74	3.7	4	13	3.3
3	9	130	14.4	5	55	11.0	4	75	18.8		18	86	4.7	11	66	6.0	7	20	2.8
4	1	2	2.0	1	2	2.0	--	--	--		--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Tot	62	570	9.2	41	356	8.7	21	214	10.2		71	288	4.1	52	203	4.0	19	85	4.5
Note:  Even though the numbers were skewed by a few long gains - any time a team can average 10 yards per play on first down, it's a dominating performance. Out of 31 first-down plays, Cal faced just 9 third-down situations for an exceptionally low percentage of 29.0%. By comparison, Air Force faced 18 third-down plays out of 29 first-down plays for 62.1%.....With Cal running the ball so well early on, some might have wondered about Cal's choosing to pass the ball on first down. For the game, Rodgers was 3 of 6 for 67 yards, 2 first downs and one sack on first down.  Cal consisently defended Air Force's option well on first down, holding Air Force to a 3.5 yard average in the first half (13 for 45 yards), and a 2.3 average in the second half (8 for 18 yards).

Quarterback Analysis
	Succ. %	TP	FD+TD	TP	Yds.	Avg.	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yds.	FD	TD	Int.	Sacks		Scram
														Pl.	Yds.	Pl.	Yds.
Aaron Rodgers, CAL	36.8%	19	7	19	191	10.1	15	10	66.7	196	5	2	0	3	-14	1	9
Reggie Robertson, CAL	50.0%	2	1	2	23	11.5	2	1	50.0	23	1	0	0	--	--	--	--
Shaun Carney, AFA	25.0%	16	4	16	85	5.3	15	9	60.0	93	3	1	1	1	-8	--	--
Andy Gray, AFA	0%	2	0	2	0	0.0	2	0	00.0	0	0	0	0	--	--	--	--
Justin Handley, AFA	0%	1	0	1	0	0.0	1	0	00.0	0	0	0	0	--	--	--	--
Game Note:    Rodgers had an effective day - with the offense able to run so well against Air Force, there was no need to throw a lot of passes. His totals above are slightly different from what you'll see in the Sunday papers. His first toss to Lyman was actually a lateral and should be noted as rushing yardage. The play-by-play and official stats counted this play as a pass - expect this to be corrected during the week.  One area of concern is the three sacks and one scramble - that meant that Cal was unable to attempt passes for four of its 19 pass plays - 21.0% - a higher percentage than most teams are happy with.  While the Golden Bears weren't able to sustain much of a pass rush against the Falcons - Carney didn't scramble effectively from pass plays. Usually younger quarterbacks will be tempted to bail from the pocket sooner; and with the Bears having difficulty against running quarterbacks last year, it was curious that Air Force didn't try to find a way to disguise quarterback draws.
Note:   The Success Percentage attempts to measure a QB's effectiv eness by looking at how often a quarterback achieves a successful result (a first down (by passing or running) or touchdown) out of all pass plays attempted. Current QB rating methodology does not include either sacks or scrambles  - this rewards QBs taking sacks instead of throwing incompletions. In addition, QB rating formulas reward the eight-yard pass on 3rd-and-12 (i.e., it's a completion, it's not an interception, and there's an above average yardage gain).  Key: Succ.% - Touchdowns + First Downs/Total Plays, TP - pass attempts + sacks + scrambles, FD - first downs, TD - touchdowns, Yds - Yards, Avg - Average, Att. - Attempts, Comp. - Completions, Pct. - Completion %, Int - Interceptions, Pl. - Plays)

Starting Field Position
	Total			1st Half			2nd Half
	Pos.	Avg.	Yd. Dif.	Pos.	Avg.	Yd. Dif.	Pos.	Avg.	Yd. Dif.
CAL	12	32.1	+87	5	25.0	+51	7	37.2	+36
AFA	13	22.9		5	14.8		8	28.0
Note:  The Bears had a mild advantage in starting field position advantage. In the first half, Air Force started at its 23-, 19-, 20-, 3-, and 9-yard lines.  For the game, Air Force only began two of its 12 possessions with a starting field position better than its 30. Giving the opponents a long field to work with on a consistent basis is one way to help a defense that's vulnerable at times -may explain why Tedford chose to punt during 4th-and-inches with the ball at its 42-yard line late in the first half.
Explanation:  Defense and special team TDs are counted as a +100. If the player had been pushed out of bounds at the opponent's 1-yard line, the team would be credited with a +99. It makes more sense to credit the team with a +100 rather than disregard the number because the offense doesn't have to take the field.

Scoring Success Inside 30
	Scores	Chances	%	Pts.	Max Pts.	MaxPts%	TD	FG	FGM	TO	Downs	Time
CAL	5	5	100.0%	35	35	100.0	5	0	0	0	0	0
AFA	2	2	100.0%	14	14	100.0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Note:  With all 10 scores being touchdowns, neither teams' field goal units were called into action - the extent of the kicking being the extra points and kickoffs.
Explanation: Many announcers will refer to how often a team scores inside the red zone - the opponents' 20-yard line. This seems like a soft standard to use. Once a team is on the opponents' 30-yard line, they would have a field goal in the 47- or 48-yard line range, which should be well within the range of most D-I kickers.  The Max Pts.% figures out how many points a team scores out of a maximum 7 points per possession inside the opponent's 30.   A team which scored six field goals out of six possession inside the 30 would have a 100% Score% (6/6) but a MaxPts% of 42.9% (18/42).

Passes to Cal Receivers					Incompletion Breakdown
Receiver	Att.	Comp.	Yds.
Chase Lyman	4	2	88		Overthrown/High	5
Garrett Cross	4	2	54		Drop	1
J.J. Arrington	2	2	19
Geoff McArthur	2	1	6
Byron Storer	1	1	23
Craig Stevens	1	1	16
Marshawn Lynch	1	1	8
Burl Toler	1	1	5
Justin Forsett	1	0	0
Note:   Bear quarterbacks scattered the ball around well, going 4-of-7 for 99 yards when throwing to receivers, 3-of-5 for 70 yards when throwing to tight ends and 4-of-5 for 50 yards when throwing to running backs. The Air Force secondary didn't break up any passes - all incompletions coming due to overthrown balls (too high/too long) or a drop.

PENALTIES
CAL OFFENSE			AF DEFENSE
CAL DEFENSE			AF OFFENSE
9	Pass Interference		15	Illegal Block
5	Offsides		5	Offside
			10	Holding
CAL SPECIAL TEAMS			AF SPECIAL TEAMS
5	Offsides		15	Illegal block
9	Illegal Block		5	Illegal Formation
Note:  California committed only one penalty in the first half, and no offensive penalties which is unusual for the first game of the year.

Plays longer than 20 yards/Total Plays
	1st Half	2nd Half	Total
California	2/31	5/31	7/62
Air Force	1/40	1/31	2/71
Note:  As much as Cal's defense might have struggled early on - they didn't give up the big play - giving up only one play longer than 20 yards in either half. By comparison, the Bears had seven such plays, including five in the second half.

Where Kickoffs Landed
Kickoff by	1st Half	2nd Half
California	7, 16, EZ	EZ, EZ, 2, EZ, EZ, EZ
Air Force	EZ, EZ, 19	None
Note: According to the announcers, there was a stiff wind early in the game which affected the Bears' first quarter kickoffs After the first quarter, five of the Bears next six kickoffs cleared the end zone. In all, eight of the game's 11 kickoffs went for touchbacks - benefactors of the thin air at high altitude. Even with the shorter kickoffs in the first half, Air Force was unable to parlay them into decent starting field position with its best starting field position being its 23.

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